Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders at Sam Houston Bearkats
Sat Nov 21 · 1:00 PM CT
By Pablo SanchezUpdated 4d ago·2 min read
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Two 2025 disasters trying to prove last year was rock bottom collide again, and this time Sam Houston gets its shot on home turf.
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Best BetSam Houston
Sam Houston gets the nod here mostly on program trajectory — a full year of stability under Longo and a reloaded offensive line beat a Middle Tennessee roster replacing 30-plus pieces. The Blue Raiders have the better known quarterback right now in Gagliano, so this isn't a lock, but home field and continuity tip it toward the Bearkats.
Middle Tennessee
+Gagliano threw for 911 yards over final 3 starts
+Won 2 of last 3 to close 2025
+Beat Sam Houston 31-17 last meeting
−Only 8 returning starters, 37 newcomers
−Finished 3-9, missed a bowl
−2-6 in CUSA play last year
Sam Houston
+Year 2 stability under Longo after chaotic debut
+Added ~33 transfers, All-CUSA center Chenault
+Locke reportedly healthier entering 2026
−Went 2-10, 1-7 CUSA in 2025
−Locke completed just 50% of passes last year
−Lost roster talent to portal after Keeler left
This is a rematch nobody circled a calendar for, but it means something to both locker rooms. Middle Tennessee beat Sam Houston 31-17 back on November 22, 2025, part of a stretch where the Blue Raiders won two of their last three after starting 1-9. Roman Gagliano was the reason why, throwing for 911 yards over those final three starts and locking down the starting job heading into 2026. On the other side, Landyn Locke gets a full offseason to build chemistry in Phil Longo's Air Raid after a rough, injury-shortened 2025 where he completed just half his passes.
Sam Houston's whole 2026 pitch is stability. Longo's first year was a scramble after KC Keeler bolted for Temple following a 10-3 season, and the roster got gutted by the portal on the way out. This time around Longo brought in roughly 33 transfers and a 17-man high school class to patch the holes, with an emphasis on the offensive line — grabbing First-Team All-CUSA center Josiah Chenault out of Kennesaw State. If the Air Raid is ever going to hum in Huntsville, this is the roster it's supposed to happen with.
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Middle Tennessee's story is almost the opposite. Derek Mason enters year three with only 8 returning starters and 37 newcomers, meaning that late-season surge gets rebuilt from scratch around Gagliano. Mason's framing this spring around building on momentum rather than chasing a repeat, which is a nice thought for a team that still finished 3-9 and missed a bowl. Both programs were bottom-third in Conference USA a year ago — MTSU went 2-6 in league play, Sam Houston 1-7 — and neither is walking into this one with much margin for error if they want a different 2026.
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders
Nov 14?@ Liberty—
Nov 7?vs Western Kentucky—
Oct 28?vs Kennesaw State—
Oct 20?@ Florida International—
Oct 13?vs Delaware—
Oct 2?@ Kansas—
Sep 26?@ Jacksonville State—
Sep 19?vs Nevada—
Sep 12?@ Marshall—
Sep 5?vs Murray State—
Sam Houston Bearkats
Nov 14?vs Kennesaw State—
Nov 7?@ Jacksonville State—
Oct 27?@ Missouri State—
Oct 21?vs New Mexico State—
Oct 14?vs Western Kentucky—
Oct 8?@ Liberty—
Sep 25?@ Texas Tech—
Sep 19?vs Nicholls—
Sep 12?vs Tulsa—
Sep 5?@ Troy—
Recent form.
Four months out, there's no depth chart to lean on and no telling who's actually healthy by Week 12, so treat any read on this game as a trajectory bet, not a scouting report. What we do know: MTSU has the more proven quarterback right now given how Gagliano closed last season, while Sam Houston is betting its whole offseason haul on turning Locke and a retooled line into a functioning attack. Whichever quarterback looks more like himself in November decides this one.
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders
(0)
Fully healthy — no injuries on ESPN's report
Sam Houston Bearkats
(0)
Fully healthy — no injuries on ESPN's report
Injury report — info via ESPN.
Neither side has separated itself from the CUSA basement yet, and that's exactly what makes this a fair fight on paper. Sam Houston gets the benefit of playing at Elliott T. Bowers Stadium in front of its own crowd, and a full year of continuity under Longo should count for something a rebuilding MTSU roster can't match. Circle it as a measuring-stick game for two programs trying to prove last season was the low point, not the new normal.
