Minnesota Golden Gophers at Penn State Nittany Lions

Nov 14, 20266:00 PM CTFS1University Park, PA
By JR·2 min read

TLDR: Two 5-4 Big Ten teams, a November night in Happy Valley and a forecast that says snow. Whoever wins Saturday, November 14 gets to 6 wins, and the loser spends the last 2 weeks chasing it.

SAT 11/14, 6:00 PM CT · Week 11FS1
Kickoff 39°14 mph

Minnesota and Penn State are both 5-4, so the winner reaches 6 wins and bowl eligibility. Penn State has won 2 straight behind Becht and Hansen but gave up 19 unanswered points in the second half at Washington. Minnesota lost at home to UCLA after a conservative Fleck decision drew criticism, and its offense hasn't topped 20 in 5 games. The early forecast calls for snow at Beaver Stadium, and no betting line has been posted yet.

Minnesota Golden Gophers
  • Has won low-scoring games: 13-10 over Iowa, 20-14 over Michigan
  • Moved the ball and scored 2 TDs against UCLA
  • Hasn't scored more than 20 in its last 5
  • Fleck's punt vs UCLA drew criticism for being too conservative
  • Gave up 2 75-yard TDs in the 4th to UCLA
Penn State Nittany Lions
  • Hansen ran for 119 yards on 14 carries at Washington
  • Becht threw for 240 and 2 TDs; Sowell had 125 receiving
  • Has scored 28 or more in each of its last 2
  • Outscored 19-0 after halftime at Washington
  • Koby Howard has missed 6 straight games
  • Went 0-4 to open Big Ten play

Penn State's offense starts with Rocco Becht. He went 16-for-27 for 240 yards and 2 touchdowns at Washington, and Carson Hansen added 119 rushing yards on just 14 carries. The Nittany Lions put up 303 yards in the first half alone and led 28-6 at the break. Minnesota is still looking for that kind of half. The Gophers scored 20 against UCLA, and for 3 quarters that was enough to keep it close. Then Ty Dieffenbach found Aidan Mizell for 2 separate 75-yard touchdowns in the 4th and the game was gone.

Penn State's second half in Seattle is the part to watch. After that 28-6 halftime lead, the Lions got outscored 19-0. Demond Williams Jr. cut it to 3 with 7:40 left, and Penn State only escaped because it held the ball for the rest of the game. Chase Sowell (4 catches, 125 yards, a 45-yard score) and Zay Robinson were both listed questionable that week and both played. Koby Howard has now missed 6 straight games. The board hasn't posted a number on this one yet.

The Gophers have their own complaint, and it's about the head coach. The Twin Cities coverage after the UCLA loss focused on a P.J. Fleck punt, with the Star Tribune saying it 'exposes problems' and another recap calling it playing it safe and paying the price. That closed out a stretch of 3 straight ranked opponents that Minnesota finished 1-2. Now they go on the road, in November, to a stadium that's hard to win in even when it isn't snowing.

11/07Lvs4UCLA20-34
10/31L@6Indiana16-23
10/24Wvs16Iowa13-10
10/11L@Purdue13-41
10/03WvsMichigan20-14
11/07W@Washington28-25
10/31WvsPurdue31-17
10/17L@Michigan18-21
10/10Lvs15USC23-31
10/03L@Northwestern13-34

Both teams have been up and down all season. Minnesota beat Michigan 20-14 and Iowa 13-10 at home and lost by 28 at Purdue. Penn State started Big Ten play 0-4, losing at Northwestern 34-13 and dropping one-score games to USC and Michigan, then beat Purdue 31-17 and won at Washington. The Gophers' offense has topped out at 20 in each of its last 5 games. Penn State has scored 28 or more in each of its last 2.

The early forecast calls for 34 degrees, snow and a 12 mph wind. That's still 6 days out and could change, but it's the kind of night that favors the team that can run it, and Hansen's Washington game says Penn State can. Minnesota has won ugly games before, beating Iowa 13-10 and Michigan 20-14. That's probably the kind of game it needs here: short, low-scoring and close in the 4th quarter. If Penn State plays 60 minutes like its first half at Washington, Minnesota probably doesn't get that game.

Free Picks
Minnesota vs. Penn State: Polymarket Odds & Prediction (Nov. 14) — Minnesota Heads To Snowy Beaver Stadium With Bowl Eligibility In Play