Texas walks into Halloween weekend looking like a playoff frontrunner. Mississippi State just wants proof last season's freefall is actually over.
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MSSTTEX
MSSTTEX
OverUnder
Best BetTexas
Texas is the clear side to back here. Manning's late-season surge, a loaded transfer haul on offense, and Muschamp taking over the defense give the Longhorns a roster edge that's hard to ignore against a Mississippi State team still finding itself. This reads like a gap year in the series, not a toss-up.
Mississippi State
+Shapen returns with experience running Lebby's offense
+Defense expected to improve in Arnett's 4th year
+Team no one wants to play, per CFN
−Coming off 5-8 season, bowl loss to Wake Forest
−Offense didn't score enough to matter last year
−Brutal 2026 slate with 9 SEC games
Texas
+Arch Manning finished 2025 red-hot at QB
+Loaded transfer haul: Coleman, Brown, Smothers, Siani, Mascoe
+Sarkisian's 6th year, roster built for a title run
−New DC Muschamp installing a new scheme
−National title-or-bust pressure looms all season
−Heavy roster turnover to integrate on the fly
This one's built around two very different quarterback stories. Arch Manning closed out 2025 by throwing 11 touchdowns against just 1 interception over his final 5 games, and he's back for Year 2 as the full-time starter with Steve Sarkisian entering his 6th season in Austin. Across the field, Blake Shapen enters his 3rd year running Jeff Lebby's offense in Starkville after fending off a freshman push from Kamario Taylor — a much lower bar of expectation, but a real one for a Mississippi State team trying to find any consistency.
Texas didn't sit still this offseason. The Longhorns added wide receiver Cam Coleman, running backs Raleek Brown and Hollywood Smothers, offensive tackle Melvin Siani, cornerback Bo Mascoe and linebacker Rasheem Biles through the portal, and brought in Will Muschamp to run the defense. Mississippi State's fix is more patient — defensive coordinator Zach Arnett is in his 4th season and the unit is expected to take a step forward, but the Bulldogs' issue last year wasn't just stopping people, it was scoring enough to matter.
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MSST Mississippi State
TEX Texas
That's the gap this game is measuring. Mississippi State went 5-8 last season, capped by a bowl loss to Wake Forest, and dropped 8 of 9 games down the stretch. Texas, meanwhile, is being talked about as a legitimate national title contender with one of the deepest rosters in the country. A trip to Austin for a Halloween-weekend night game under the lights is exactly the kind of spot that can expose a team still rebuilding its identity.
Mississippi State Bulldogs
Oct 16?@ LSU—
Oct 2?vs Alabama—
Sep 25?vs Missouri—
Sep 19?@ South Carolina—
Sep 12?@ Minnesota—
Sep 5?vs UL Monroe—
Texas Longhorns
Oct 16?vs Florida—
Oct 10?@ Oklahoma—
Sep 26?@ Tennessee—
Sep 19?vs UTSA—
Sep 12?vs Ohio State—
Sep 5?vs Texas State—
Recent form.
There's a version of this where Mississippi State's defensive improvement actually shows up and keeps this respectable for a half — Arnett's group is the more proven side of that roster. But asking a still-unsettled offense to keep pace with Manning and a retooled Texas skill group on the road is a tall order, and it's the kind of game that can spiral fast once one side starts pulling away.
For Texas, this is a measuring-stick game disguised as a scheduling formality — the kind of matchup a real contender is supposed to handle without much drama on the way to bigger November tests. For Mississippi State, just staying competitive into the second half would be a sign the Lebby rebuild is trending the right direction after a rough finish to 2025.
