Missouri spent the winter locking down its quarterback job and re-signing its coach. Mississippi State spent it trying to figure out who's actually going to throw the ball.
Bush’s Picks
MIZMSST
MIZMSST
OverUnder
Best BetMissouri
Missouri brings back its best offensive weapon in Ahmad Hardy and enters with a settled starting quarterback, while Mississippi State is still figuring out its passing game behind a first-time full-season starter. The Tigers also have the recent head-to-head history and the better preseason efficiency numbers on their side. This lines up as a lay-the-price spot on the road favorite.
Missouri
+Ahmad Hardy, All-America RB, chose to return in 2026
+Coach Drinkwitz just signed a 6-year extension
+Won last 2 meetings, leads series 4-2
−New starter Austin Simmons has limited career pass attempts
−2026 schedule reportedly tougher, more CFP-caliber opponents
Mississippi State
+Kamario Taylor gained live SEC snaps late last season
+Added 23 transfers plus a 30-player signing class
−Finished 2025 just 5-8, 1-7 in SEC play
−Backup QB left via portal, thinning depth behind Taylor
−Coach Lebby reportedly facing pressure entering year 3
The headline storyline here is how differently these two programs enter the season. Missouri already knows its starter: Ole Miss transfer Austin Simmons won the job coming out of spring practice, beating out a returning arm and another portal addition to take the reins of an offense that just posted 8 wins. Mississippi State, meanwhile, is leaning on Kamario Taylor, who took over late last season and got run-out time in the Egg Bowl but has yet to prove he can hold up over a full 12-game SEC slate. One team walks in with clarity. The other is still finding out what it has.
Missouri's confidence isn't just about the quarterback room. Running back Ahmad Hardy, who set the school's single-season rushing record last year and earned first-team All-America honors, chose to stay in Columbia instead of testing the portal — a quiet vote of confidence in where this program is headed. Eliah Drinkwitz got the same message from the administration, signing a 6-year extension in November. Mississippi State's offseason reads the opposite way: a 5-8 finish, a backup quarterback who left via the portal thinning out the depth chart behind Taylor, and reporting suggesting Jeff Lebby is entering the year with a de facto win total the administration is watching.
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Both sides did retool through the portal — Mississippi State brought in 23 new transfers alongside a 30-player signing class — but volume of moves doesn't always translate to fixed problems, and this program is still hunting for the kind of offensive line and secondary consistency that turns close SEC losses into wins. Missouri's roadmap looks cleaner on paper, even with a step up in schedule difficulty. The last time these two met, it wasn't particularly close.
Missouri Tigers
Sep 19?vs Troy—
Sep 11?@ Kansas—
Sep 3?vs Arkansas-Pine Bluff—
Mississippi State Bulldogs
Sep 19?@ South Carolina—
Sep 12?@ Minnesota—
Sep 5?vs UL Monroe—
Recent form.
That most recent meeting, a 49-27 Missouri win in November, is the most recent data point either fan base has to lean on, and it fits the larger trend: the Tigers have won the last 2 meetings and hold a 4-2 edge in the all-time series. For Mississippi State, the goal this time around isn't necessarily style points — it's proving the program can compete with the SEC's middle class again after bottoming out at 1-7 in conference play a season ago. A canonical starting lineup and injury report for a Friday game still 2 months out obviously isn't set yet, so treat any names beyond the confirmed quarterback situations as fluid.
Missouri Tigers
(0)
Fully healthy — no injuries on ESPN's report
Mississippi State Bulldogs
(0)
Fully healthy — no injuries on ESPN's report
Injury report — info via ESPN.
Preseason projections back up the eye test: Missouri sits around the No. 19 mark nationally in early efficiency models, while outside projections have Mississippi State finishing closer to 4-8. None of that guarantees anything once Friday, September 25 actually arrives — new starting quarterbacks have surprised people before, and Lebby's staff has had a full offseason to sell buy-in on a roster that added real pieces. But right now, this looks like a program on the rise visiting one still trying to find its footing.
