Who is favored in Missouri State Bears at SMU Mustangs?

SMU Mustangs are favored on the moneyline.

Missouri State Bears at SMU Mustangs

Sep 26, 2026·8:00 PM CT·Dallas, TX

By JR·1 min read

MOST(1-2)

#22 SMU(2-1)

AT

8:00 PM CT

TLDR: SMU just lost for the first time all season in a shootout at Louisville, and its reward is a 34.5-point favorite spot against a Missouri State team that's been shut out once already.

SAT SEP 26, 8:00 PM CT

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Missouri State

(1-2)

LWLLL

#22 SMU

(2-1)

LWWWL

Kickoff90°

SMU (2-1) hosts Conference USA's Missouri State (0-2) as a massive home favorite after dropping a turnover-riddled 41-31 shootout at Louisville. Missouri State has been outscored 80-24 combined in losses to Texas A&M and Marshall, while SMU's offense has topped 27 points in every game it's played this season.

Missouri State

Kept it within one score against Marshall, 30-24
Already has two FBS games of reps under its belt
Shut out 50-0 by Texas A&M in the opener
Steps up several tiers in class against a ranked ACC foe

SMU

Scored 27+ points in all three games this season
Out-gained Louisville 479 yards despite the loss
Turned the ball over three times in the Louisville loss
First loss of the year could linger after a gut-punch finish

SMU opened the year 2-0 with quarterback Kevin Jennings slicing up Florida State on the road and then UC Davis at home, throwing for a combined 767 yards and 8 touchdowns across the two wins. That run ended Sept. 19 at Louisville, a 41-31 loss where SMU actually out-gained the Cardinals 479 yards to their total but lost the turnover battle 3-0, with Jennings picked off twice and stripped once near the goal line. Coach Rhett Lashlee summed it up afterward: "We won everything but the score and the turnover battle."

Missouri State brings the opposite kind of season into Dallas. The Bears were shut out 50-0 by No. 8 Texas A&M in their opener, then played a far more competitive game against Marshall on Sept. 19, losing 30-24. That's an 0-2 team about to face a ranked ACC opponent that just hung 31 points on a top-25 defense.

Gerald J. Ford Stadium will run hot for this one — mid-90s and partly cloudy is the forecast for the Dallas forecast window, with barely any wind to speak of. Nothing about the conditions figures to slow either offense down.

This is squarely a get-right game for SMU after a loss defined by uncharacteristic turnovers rather than a lack of production, and Missouri State's turnover-margin problems against A&M and Marshall haven't given any indication that trend flips here. The Polymarket room for this one has barely filled — 120 members is a fraction of a typical Saturday crowd for this stage of the schedule — which tracks with a game the market doesn't see as competitive.

There's no drama in who's favored. The story worth watching is whether SMU cleans up the ball-security issues that cost it at Louisville, or whether those carry over even against an outmatched Conference USA defense.

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