The schedule helps Missouri State. The Bears last played on September 26, so they get close to 2 weeks to prepare for this one. Western Kentucky gets 1 week after a road trip to New Mexico. In a game between 2 struggling teams, that extra week of rest and film matters.
Mercyhurst52-7
The real worry for Western Kentucky is the offense. In 4 games against FBS opponents the Hilltoppers have scored 14, 20, 0 and 13 points, which works out to 47 total. Georgia hung 70 on them, Nevada 49, Indiana 38, and then a New Mexico State team that came in 1-3 scored 34. The 52-7 win over Mercyhurst was the one week everything worked, and Mercyhurst isn't the kind of opponent that tells you much.
Missouri State hasn't been dominant either, but it has kept 2 of its 3 FBS games within one score, including the trip to a ranked SMU team. The Bears put up 24 points in both the Marshall and SMU games, which is more than WKU has managed in any game against an FBS opponent this year. Missouri State has dropped 2 straight, but it has played competitive football recently, and that is the real difference between these 2 teams heading into Thursday night.
Weather won't be a factor. The early forecast for Bowling Green calls for mostly sunny skies, low 70s and a light wind. With 2 struggling teams and nice weather, the night should be decided by whichever offense moves the ball first, and only one of these teams has done that against an FBS defense lately.