Air Force's first 3 games tell you something beyond the 2-1 record. The Falcons shut out Duquesne 34-0, then lost 38-32 to North Dakota State at home and needed 2 overtimes to get out of Reno. They can score, and they have let 2 straight opponents put up 33 or more. That's not how Calhoun's teams usually win this game. They usually win it by keeping the ball and turning the fourth quarter into a clock drill.
The matchup to watch is Navy's offense against that Air Force defense. The Midshipmen have scored 30 or more in both results on the record, and Air Force has spent the last 2 games getting into shootouts it had to win late. If the Falcons defense can't get off the field, the game plan Air Force has run for 2 decades, owning time of possession and limiting the other team's snaps, stops working.
Early forecasts for Falcon Stadium call for about 70 degrees, clear skies and almost no wind. That's as friendly as football at the Academy gets in October, though it's a 6-day-out forecast and can change. It also takes weather out of the equation for 2 offenses that want to run, so this should come down to execution on the ground.
There's more at stake than the week. Air Force still has a trip to Army in November, and Navy gets its own shot at the Black Knights in December. Whoever takes this first leg controls the trophy race going into the rest of the year. The Falcons have home field and altitude. Navy has the more productive offense so far and a game to show its defense is better than it looked in Boca Raton.