UTSA hasn't looked like a team missing its back. Against South Florida at the Alamodome on October 8, the Roadrunners ran for close to 300 yards. A'Marion Peterson scored 3 rushing touchdowns, the last a 1-yard plunge with 15 seconds left that capped a 10-play, 75-yard drive led by Owen McCown. Will Henderson III broke the 26-yard run that set it up. As of today, that makes 3 straight wins for UTSA.
Towson42-15
The schedule spot helps the home team. UTSA played on a Thursday, so it gets 9 days between the USF game and Navy's arrival. Navy gets the normal 7 after Tulsa, plus a trip to San Antonio. Extra practice time matters more against Navy than against almost anyone, because the option punishes a defense that hasn't drilled its assignments. UTSA gets 2 more days of that drilling than a normal week would allow.
Neither team has gotten here easily. UTSA's last 3 wins were 59-45 over Colorado State, 16-14 at Rice and the last-second win over USF, so the only thing those games share is a close finish. Its one loss came 30-6 at Texas. Navy's 5 games have been decided by ball security and finishing drives, and the Air Force loss showed what happens when the ground game stalls: 9 points. Inside the dome there is no weather to slow either offense down.
So the question is simple. UTSA's front has to beat Navy's dive and quarterback keepers on first down, and McCown has to turn his possessions into points, because Navy will make sure he doesn't get many. If Gutierrez gets to 200 again and Navy holds onto the ball, this goes to the fourth quarter. If the turnovers come back, UTSA has already shown it can finish a close game at home.