NC State Wolfpack at North Carolina Tar Heels

NC State has owned this rivalry lately, and North Carolina still hasn't proven it's close to fixing that.

Bush’s Picks

NCSUUNC

NCSUUNC

OverUnder

Best BetNC State

NC State brings a returning starter with two years of ACC snaps into a program that's still sorting out its quarterback room. That kind of continuity usually travels well in rivalry spots, and the Wolfpack have simply been the better, more stable operation in this series for half a decade now. Back NC State to keep that trend alive.

NC State

• +CJ Bailey returning for third year as starter
• +Won 5 straight and 8 of last 10 vs UNC
• +Doeren says he's done finishing second in ACC
• −Defense was a genuine weak spot last season
• −Favorable schedule hasn't been tested by rivalry intensity

North Carolina

• +New OC Bobby Petrino brings real play-calling pedigree
• +Transfer QB Billy Edwards Jr. has starting experience elsewhere
• +Stephen Belichick's defense has a full year of continuity
• −Finished 4-8 in Belichick's debut season amid drama
• −Quarterback competition still unsettled entering the year
• −Analysts already projecting another 4-8-type finish

This one closes the regular season, and it means very different things on each sideline. NC State's CJ Bailey is entering his third year as the starter after throwing for 3,105 yards and 25 touchdowns a season ago, and Dave Doeren has made no secret that he's tired of being the bridesmaid in the ACC. North Carolina, meanwhile, is still trying to figure out who its quarterback even is, with transfer Billy Edwards Jr. brought in to compete for a job that was a mess for most of Bill Belichick's first year.

Belichick's debut season ended at 4-8, and it wasn't just the record — it was a stretch of drama and locker-room noise that overshadowed whatever football got played. The fix, on paper, is Bobby Petrino running the offense in year one and Stephen Belichick still calling the defense. Whether that overhaul actually moves the needle by late November is the real question hanging over Chapel Hill, and it's part of why oddsmakers and bettors alike will be squinting hard at this line the closer it gets to kickoff.

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NC State's own path here isn't spotless. The Wolfpack's defense was a soft spot last season, and a schedule that's been kind to them so far doesn't guarantee anything once conference play grinds into November. But continuity matters in a rivalry game like this, and Bailey having two full years of starts under him is the kind of edge that tends to show up when everything else is muddled.

NC State Wolfpack

Nov 20?@ Florida State—

Nov 13?vs Syracuse—

Nov 6?vs Duke—

Oct 30?vs California—

Oct 23?@ Stanford—

Oct 9?vs Wake Forest—

Oct 2?vs Louisville—

Sep 25?vs App State—

Sep 19?@ Vanderbilt—

Sep 11?vs Richmond—

Aug 29?@ Virginia—

North Carolina Tar Heels

Nov 20?@ Virginia—

Nov 13?vs Louisville—

Nov 7?@ UConn—

Oct 30?vs Miami—

Oct 16?@ Duke—

Oct 9?@ Pittsburgh—

Oct 2?vs Notre Dame—

Sep 19?@ Clemson—

Sep 12?vs East Tennessee State—

Aug 29?@ TCU—

History is squarely in the Wolfpack's corner right now. NC State has won five straight in this series, 8 of the last 10, and rolled North Carolina 42-19 in last year's meeting. North Carolina still holds the all-time series edge, but that's ancient ground — since 1956 it's been Wolfpack country, 36-34, and the recent run has only widened the gap in swagger if not in the history books.

NC State Wolfpack

(0)

Fully healthy — no injuries on ESPN's report

North Carolina Tar Heels

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Fully healthy — no injuries on ESPN's report

For UNC, this game will likely double as a referendum on whether the roster overhaul was worth the chaos. For NC State, it's a chance to make it six in a row and close the book on another season with the bragging rights firmly in Raleigh's hands. Given where each program actually stands right now, that's not a hard case to make.