Two bowl teams from a year ago open SEC Network's morning window with very different quarterback pictures — one settled, one still being figured out in fall camp.
Bush’s Picks
NCSUVAN
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Best BetNC State
NC State brings the only proven, third-year starting quarterback on the field, and that's a real edge in a game where Vanderbilt's own quarterback room is still unresolved in fall camp. Backing the Wolfpack moneyline is a bet that experience under center outweighs home field against a team replacing a Heisman-runner-up caliber player. It's not a layup, but the value sits with the team that isn't guessing at quarterback.
NC State
+CJ Bailey returns, 3,105 yards and 31 total TDs in 2025
+Third-year starter, rare stability at ACC quarterback
+Bowl win last season, favorable 2026 schedule per Athlon
−Only two returning starters on offensive line
−Must replace top five pass-catchers from 2025
−Athlon projects Wolfpack ninth in the ACC
Vanderbilt
+Sedrick Alexander returns, 5.4 yards per carry, 11 TDs
+Made a bowl game last season under Clark Lea
+Home game at start of the year, five-star freshman talent
−Losing Heisman runner-up Diego Pavia at quarterback
−Starting QB job still unsettled entering fall camp
−Anonymous SEC coach skeptical Commodores hold up without Pavia
CJ Bailey is back under center for NC State, and that alone separates this Wolfpack team from most of what Vanderbilt will see in 2026. Bailey threw for 3,105 yards and accounted for 31 total touchdowns last season, and Dave Doeren built the entire offseason offense around keeping him in Raleigh. Across the field, Vanderbilt is trying to replace a Heisman runner-up in Diego Pavia with either five-star true freshman Jared Curtis or steady backup Blaze Berlowitz — a competition Clark Lea has refused to settle early, and one that may still be running when these two teams kick off at 11:45 AM ET.
NC State's issue isn't the quarterback, it's everything around him. The Wolfpack return only two starters up front and have to replace their top five pass-catchers from a season ago, which is a lot to ask even with Bailey distributing the ball. Vanderbilt, meanwhile, gets to lean on a run game that doesn't need to be reinvented — Sedrick Alexander is back after averaging 5.4 yards a carry with 11 touchdowns, and Makhilyn Young gives Lea a legitimate complementary back behind him.
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NCSU NC State
VAN Vanderbilt
Both programs made bowl games last year and both want this one to be an early signature win rather than a trap game three weeks into the season. Vanderbilt gets the benefit of playing at home, but a true freshman or a career backup at quarterback against an ACC defense that added multiple transfer starters is exactly the kind of variance that keeps an early-week line honest.
NC State Wolfpack
Sep 11?vs Richmond—
Aug 29?@ Virginia—
Vanderbilt Commodores
Sep 12?vs Delaware—
Sep 5?vs Austin Peay—
Recent form.
The bigger swing factor here might be NC State's defense, not its offense. The Wolfpack's most notable transfer additions were linebacker Raul Aguirre Jr. from Miami, cornerback Ondre Evans from Georgia, safety King Mack and linebacker DaKaari Nelson from Penn State — a defensive rebuild that's leaning hard on outside talent to slow down whichever quarterback Vanderbilt trots out. If that group gels fast, Bailey's rushing ability becomes a real problem for a Commodores defense that also has to defend the run.
NC State Wolfpack
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Fully healthy — no injuries on ESPN's report
Vanderbilt Commodores
(0)
Fully healthy — no injuries on ESPN's report
Injury report — info via ESPN.
An anonymous SEC coach was blunt in preseason chatter, saying Vanderbilt will "absolutely not" be as good without Pavia running the show — a reminder of just how much Pavia's dual-threat production papered over other question marks last year. Whether Curtis or Berlowitz wins the job, neither arrives with anything close to Pavia's college mileage, and that's the story to watch heading into Week 3.
