NC State and Virginia kick off the 2026 season with two very different offseasons colliding — a Wolfpack team that finally broke through in a bowl game, and a Cavaliers squad trying to replicate a program-record year with a brand-new quarterback.
Bush’s Picks
NCSUUVA
NCSUUVA
OverUnder
Best BetVirginia
Virginia's the more talented, more battle-tested program right now off an 11-win season, and Elliott's roster reload only adds to that gap. The catch is Pribula's first snaps in a Cavaliers uniform coming in a live ACC opener, which is exactly the kind of spot that trips up otherwise-favored teams. Still, the overall talent and coaching edge points toward Virginia getting the win.
NC State
+CJ Bailey returns as an entrenched, proven starter
+Won Gasparilla Bowl, first bowl win since 2017
+Added portal defenders like LB Raul Aguirre, DE transfer
−Lost RB Smothers, WR Anderson, starting OT via portal
−Lower preseason win total than Virginia
−Defense leaning heavily on unproven new arrivals
Virginia
+Program-record 11-win 2025 season, Elliott named ACC COY finalist
+Massive transfer reload including QB Pribula, RB Peyton Lewis
+Preseason buzz as an ACC dark horse
−Losing Chandler Morris, the QB who led them to 11 wins
−Pribula named starter just days before fall camp opens
−Lost contributors like WR Trell Harris to the portal
The headline story for this opener is under center. NC State brings back CJ Bailey, who threw for 3,105 yards and 25 touchdowns as a sophomore and enters as one of the few third-year starters in the ACC. Virginia counters with Missouri transfer Beau Pribula, only just named the starter at ACC Kickoff in mid-July after Chandler Morris — the quarterback who led the Cavaliers to an 11-win season — had his eligibility waiver denied and won't be back.
That QB swap is the single biggest swing factor here. Pribula threw for 1,941 yards and ran for 6 more scores at Missouri last season, so the arm and legs are proven — just not in a Virginia uniform yet, and definitely not against an ACC opponent in a Week 1 environment. NC State, meanwhile, retooled its defense hard in the portal, adding Miami linebacker Raul Aguirre and Tulane's AAC sack leader up front, while losing pieces like RB Hollywood Smothers and WR Terrell Anderson on offense.
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NCSU NC State
UVA Virginia
Virginia's offseason was the bigger one by volume — a transfer class in the high 20s, headlined by Pribula and backup Eli Holstein, replacing a roster that just delivered Tony Elliott's best season in Charlottesville. NC State's answer was a quieter, bowl-win-fueled build, banking on continuity at quarterback to offset turnover everywhere else.
Coming off that program-record 11-3 finish — an ACC Championship near-miss in overtime to Duke and a Gator Bowl win over Missouri — Virginia enters as the trendier pick nationally, with preseason chatter pegging the Cavaliers as an ACC dark horse. NC State's own turnaround, an 8-5 season capped by a 31-7 Gasparilla Bowl win over Memphis, was its first bowl victory since 2017, and Dave Doeren got rewarded with a new deal to match it.
NC State Wolfpack
Virginia Cavaliers
Recent form.
Losing Morris is a real dent for Virginia no matter how good Pribula ends up being — he was the guy who got them to 11 wins, and now the Cavaliers are trusting a new arm with almost no live reps in the building. NC State doesn't have that problem at quarterback, but its defense is leaning on a lot of new faces to replace departures across the front seven and secondary.
NC State Wolfpack
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Fully healthy — no injuries on ESPN's report
Virginia Cavaliers
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Fully healthy — no injuries on ESPN's report
Injury report — info via ESPN.
Both staffs will spend fall camp figuring out exactly what they have, and a Week 1 game against a fellow ACC opponent is a rough proving ground for that. Bailey's continuity gives NC State a floor Virginia doesn't have yet at the position, even if the overall roster gap still favors the Cavaliers on paper.
