The common opponents make this matchup look closer than the streaks do. Both teams beat Michigan State and Maryland. Both played Oregon. Nebraska lost by 3 in Eugene. Illinois beat the Ducks 21-10 at home. That Oregon game is the best argument Illinois has, and it gets to play this one at home too. Nebraska is 5-2 overall with a 2-3 Big Ten record. Illinois is 5-3 and 3-2 in the league, so the conference standing favors the home team even though the overall record doesn't.
Nebraska's backfield is thin. Both I. Mozee and V. Genatone are listed out, and Genatone is done for the season, which pushes even more of the offense onto a quarterback who just threw 3 picks. Defensive lineman A. Jones Jr. is out with a foot injury that has no timetable, and that matters against an Illinois offense that sealed the Maryland game by running it 4 straight times. Illinois has its own depth problem at tight end. G. Smith, B. Thurman and T. Hollinger are all out for the year, and receiver A. Perry is out after shoulder surgery. RB J. Forster and WR N. Rankin are still listed questionable on stale tags that are worth checking during the week.
The forecast says 48 degrees, light drizzle and 12 mph wind for a Friday night kickoff in Champaign. That favors the team that wants to run it and win in the fourth quarter, and Illinois has been doing exactly that. Nebraska's 3-game skid has come against Indiana, Oregon and Washington, each loss by a field goal or a touchdown. This is the most winnable game it has played in a month. If the Huskers lose a fourth straight one-score game, it stops looking like bad luck.
