There's also a useful common opponent. Nevada handled San José State 28-13 at home in late October. Northern Illinois lost 30-19 at San José State, against a Spartans front that, going into that game, led the Mountain West with 31 sacks. That favors Nevada on paper, but the Wolf Pack team that beat the Spartans hasn't shown up since.
The defensive picture is ugly on the home side. NIU has given up at least 28 points in each of its last 5 games, including 56 to Hawai'i. Linebacker Jack Murray ranks 10th in the Mountain West in tackles per game, and 2 different Huskies picked off their first passes against UNLV. Still, this is a unit that has been giving up yards in chunks. Against most offenses, that's the whole story. Against a Nevada offense that couldn't run the ball at all last time out, the Huskies might get a breather.
The form shows NIU's results tightening up. After lopsided losses to Air Force and Hawai'i, the last 2 defeats came by 7 and 11. Nevada has gone the other way, with 2 straight losses by a combined 55-3. Expect about 44 degrees and clouds in DeKalb with a light wind, so weather shouldn't decide anything. Something has to give between an offense that can't score and a defense that can't stop anyone, and the winless team is the one at home.
