Two 9-4 teams that finally broke through last fall collide on Oahu, and both sides think this is the year they take the next step.
Bush’s Picks
UNMHAW
UNMHAW
OverUnder
Best BetHawai'i
Hawai'i brings back the league's Preseason Offensive Player of the Year in Alejado while New Mexico still isn't sure who's throwing the ball. That gap in quarterback certainty is enough to lean the Rainbow Warriors at home, especially with Chang's group carrying legitimate Mountain West title buzz into the year.
New Mexico
+9-4 in 2025, first bowl trip since 2016
+Elite returning LB and secondary production
+Sky-high expectations, program trending up under Eck
−Starting QB Layne recovering from torn flexor tendon
−Unsettled QB competition among Layne, Moga, Fa'avae
−D-line replacing 16.5 of 36 sacks from 2025
Hawai'i
+Micah Alejado back, named preseason league Offensive POY
+Home offense averaged 394 yards, 29 points in 2025
+CFN and ESPN see Hawai'i as a Mountain West/CFP contender
−First year as a full-time Mountain West member
−CFN projects 9-3, citing a travel-heavy MW slate
−Target on their back with title-favorite expectations
Hawai'i opens the night as the trendier pick nationally, and it's not hard to see why. Micah Alejado is back after a sophomore season that put up 3,100-plus passing yards and 24 touchdowns, and Mountain West media pegged him as the league's Preseason Offensive Player of the Year. New Mexico, meanwhile, arrives as the feel-good story of the conference, a program that hadn't sniffed a bowl since 2016 before Jason Eck's first year turned it around.
The Lobos' path to matching last year's leap runs through a murky quarterback picture. Jack Layne was QB1 in 2025 before a torn flexor tendon knocked him out of spring work, and Oregon transfer Luke Moga and redshirt freshman Toa Fa'avae spent spring ball trading first-team reps trying to be ready just in case. Fa'avae also threw three picks in the spring game, the kind of mistake Eck said he'd rather see in April than in a game that counts. If Layne isn't fully right by mid-October, that's a real problem walking into a rowdy road environment.
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UNM New Mexico
HAW Hawai'i
Hawai'i's calling card is what it does with the ball at home, where the offense averaged 394 yards and 29 points a game a year ago. This is also the Rainbow Warriors' first season as a full-time Mountain West member now that Boise State, Fresno State, San Diego State, Colorado State and Utah State have peeled off for the Pac-12, and Chang has made no secret that he thinks this roster has a real shot at the league title and a Group of Six playoff bid.
New Mexico's counterpunch is defense. The Lobos return 67% of their linebacker snaps and 65% of their secondary snaps from 2025, top marks in the Mountain West. The catch is up front, where just 38% of the defensive line's snaps are back and the group lost 16.5 of the team's 36 sacks with Keyshawn James-Newby and Brett Karhu gone. Against an Alejado-led passing attack that lit up the league at home, that's exactly the wrong unit to be breaking in new pieces.
New Mexico Lobos
Oct 2?vs UTEP—
Sep 26?@ New Mexico State—
Sep 19?@ Oklahoma—
Sep 11?vs Mercyhurst—
Sep 5?vs Central Michigan—
Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors
Oct 9?@ Arizona State—
Oct 3?vs San José State—
Sep 26?@ Wyoming—
Sep 12?vs New Mexico State—
Sep 5?vs UNLV—
Aug 29?@ Stanford—
Recent form.
Both fan bases have real reasons to believe. New Mexico hasn't opened a season with expectations this high since 1964, and Eck's program feels like it's still on the way up. Hawai'i has the tape, the returning quarterback and the CFP buzz to be the favorite in just about any Mountain West building it walks into, including its own.
