New Mexico has won two straight in the Rio Grande Rivalry by a combined 68 points, but this time the Lobos have to go win it in Las Cruces.
Bush’s Picks
UNMNMSU
UNMNMSU
OverUnder
Best BetNew Mexico
New Mexico enters as the far more proven program after a 9-4, bowl-bound 2025, and they've beaten this rival in back-to-back years. New Mexico State is still sorting out its quarterback room with a new transfer atop the depth chart, which is a rough spot to be in against a rival that's already shown it can beat you on the road. Back the Lobos to keep the streak alive.
New Mexico
+9-4 breakthrough season, first bowl since 2016
+Won last two Rio Grande Rivalry meetings
+Added 27 transfers to reload the roster
−Lost both 2025 quarterbacks to the portal
−Playing this one on the road in Las Cruces
New Mexico State
+Playing at home, motivated after two rivalry losses
+Furman transfer Hedden brings proven passing volume
+Series historically close outside recent skid
−Fell to 4-8 in 2025, just 2-6 in CUSA
−Lost leading receiver Faupel to Arkansas
−Quarterback room still unsettled entering fall
Jason Eck walks into his second season in Albuquerque with a target on his back for once. The Lobos went 9-4 in 2025 and reached a bowl game for the first time since 2016, and that kind of jump usually means teams start circling the date on their calendar. New Mexico State knows the feeling from the other side. Tony Sanchez's group slipped to 4-8 a year ago, and now they're bringing in a graduate transfer, Trey Hedden, out of Furman to try to settle a quarterback room that also includes returner Adam Damante and juco addition Kalani McLeod.
Roster churn cuts both ways here. New Mexico brought in 27 transfers and 31 incoming freshmen this offseason, an overhaul that's notable given how well the previous group played, and it includes losing both quarterbacks who threw passes for them last year, Cole Welliver and Isaiah Chavez, to the portal. Oregon transfer Luke Moga steps into that void. NM State, meanwhile, said goodbye to leading receiver Donovan Faupel, who left for Arkansas, while restocking with nine incoming transfers of its own.
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UNM New Mexico
NMSU New Mexico State
History says not to sleep on this one just because the records point one direction. The last two meetings went 50-40 and 38-20, both decided late and both featuring a lot of points on the board, and the all-time series is basically even outside of New Mexico's ancient dominance from the '60s and '70s. Aggies fans will also note this one's in Las Cruces, where NM State beat the Lobos in the 2024 edition of this same series before New Mexico flipped it back last September in Albuquerque.
New Mexico Lobos
Sep 19?@ Oklahoma—
Sep 11?vs Mercyhurst—
Sep 5?vs Central Michigan—
New Mexico State Aggies
Sep 12?@ Hawai'i—
Sep 5?vs Mercyhurst—
Aug 29?@ Florida State—
Recent form.
The gap on paper is real. New Mexico is coming off the best season the program has had in a decade, with expectations now attached that haven't existed around the Lobos in a long time. New Mexico State is trying to find stability at quarterback for the third straight year and hasn't had time to build the kind of continuity that shows up when rivalry week gets tense. But rivalry games have a habit of not caring about February headlines, and a home crowd in Las Cruces desperate to snap a two-game skid is exactly the kind of environment that keeps a double-digit favorite from cruising.
New Mexico Lobos
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Fully healthy — no injuries on ESPN's report
New Mexico State Aggies
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Fully healthy — no injuries on ESPN's report
Injury report — info via ESPN.
Whoever wins the quarterback battle on each side by late September will matter more than any offseason ranking. New Mexico needs Moga or one of its other options to look like a Mountain West starter fast, while NM State needs Hedden's FCS production, nearly 3,000 yards and 17 touchdowns at Furman last year, to translate up a level. Get that right, and either team can make this the kind of shootout the last two meetings turned into.
