New Mexico's win in Honolulu wasn't pretty either, and you need to know that to read the 5-1 record right. The Lobos turned it over 3 times, took 16 penalties and fell behind by double digits before the run game took over. Scottre Humphrey ran for 90 yards and 2 touchdowns, including the 49-yard sprint up the middle that iced it with 3:24 left, and Kiefer Sibley added 87. That's 3 ball carriers running hard behind a line that wore Hawai'i down, and it's an identity. A team that can win while playing that sloppy has a floor.
These two have played 2 of the same opponents, and those games help. New Mexico beat UTEP 61-7 at home and won 21-10 at Hawai'i. San José State beat UTEP 24-11 on the road and got past Hawai'i 20-16. The Spartans won both, but by a lot less. Their 4 losses include 13-16 to Wyoming and 10-26 to Fresno State at home, so CEFCU hasn't been much of a fortress. The Lobos also come in off an open week after the Hawai'i trip, while San José State is turning around after a physical loss in Reno.
The injury report shows where New Mexico is vulnerable. Receivers S. Miller, T. Omeire and A. Williams are all out, and so are tight ends T. Walsh and J. Olsen. That's 5 pass catchers gone, and it explains why Fa'avae's arm has been an afterthought. If the San José State defense, which picked off a pass in Reno through Jayden Robertson, can sell out against the run and make the Lobos throw, this gets a lot more interesting. The Spartans' list is short by comparison: WR C. Hoch has been questionable with a leg injury.
Here's how it shapes up. New Mexico wants a long, grinding day on the ground and has 3 backs to do it with. San José State needs whichever quarterback starts to convert more than 1 third down in 14, or its defense will spend the whole afternoon on the field again. The forecast is about as mild as it gets, 65 degrees, partly cloudy and barely any wind, so the weather won't help either offense out.