Wyoming closed 2025 on a 4-game losing streak that buried its bowl hopes for a second straight year, and New Mexico is the team walking into Laramie with a real chance to make it a fifth.
Bush’s Picks
UNMWYO
UNMWYO
OverUnder
Best BetNew Mexico
There's no market signal to lean on yet this far out, so this comes down to roster quality: New Mexico is the 9-4 team with a defense that mostly returns intact, Wyoming the team that lost its final 4 games of 2025. Back the Lobos to win outright — until Wyoming's transfer class proves itself against a team with a winning pedigree, there's no reason to trust the home side just because it's playing at home. A healthy Layne should be enough to settle this.
−Lost 8 players to the portal, including TE1 and RB1
−Layne barely threw all spring recovering from elbow surgery
Wyoming
+Sawvel added 20 transfers to retool both sides
+28 lettermen return, giving some roster continuity
−Finished 4-8, 2-6 in conference, missed bowl again
−Closed the season on a 4-game losing streak
New Mexico's whole 2026 hinges on Jack Layne's throwing elbow. The quarterback tore a flexor tendon in warmups before last season's bowl win over UCLA, played through it anyway, and had surgery on December 28. He's targeting a full return in time for the regular season, and if he gets there, the Lobos bring back the identity that produced a 9-4 record and their first bowl trip since 2016. Wyoming, on the other hand, is still trying to find any identity at all under Jay Sawvel, who's entering year 3 off a 4-8 finish.
Sawvel didn't sit still after that collapse. He brought in 20 transfers this offseason, 8 on offense and 11 on defense, an overhaul aimed squarely at a back half of 2025 that turned into a 4-game landslide and a 2-6 mark in Mountain West play. Whether that roster reset is far enough along by the time New Mexico rolls into town is the question hanging over this whole season, and it's one that'll get asked plenty between now and kickoff.
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UNM New Mexico
WYO Wyoming
None of that changes what New Mexico is building toward. Jason Eck's second season opens with real expectations for the first time in nearly a decade, and a defense that brings back cornerback Abraham Williams, defensive tackle Jalen McIver and safeties Austin Brawley and Tavian Combs gives the Lobos a foundation Wyoming simply doesn't have yet.
New Mexico isn't getting through the offseason clean, either. The Lobos are down 8 players to the transfer portal, including tight end Dorian Thomas, running back DJ McKinney, punter Daniel Hughes and both backup quarterbacks from a season ago. That's real production to replace, and it's why Layne's health matters as much as it does — there isn't a deep cushion behind him if the elbow flares back up.
New Mexico Lobos
Nov 14?vs UNLV—
Nov 6?@ Nevada—
Oct 30?@ San José State—
Oct 16?@ Hawai'i—
Oct 2?vs UTEP—
Sep 26?@ New Mexico State—
Sep 19?@ Oklahoma—
Sep 11?vs Mercyhurst—
Sep 5?vs Central Michigan—
Wyoming Cowboys
Nov 13?@ UTEP—
Nov 7?@ UNLV—
Oct 23?vs Air Force—
Oct 17?vs Northern Illinois—
Oct 9?@ San José State—
Oct 3?@ North Dakota State—
Sep 26?vs Hawai'i—
Sep 19?@ Central Michigan—
Sep 12?vs Northern Colorado—
Sep 5?@ Colorado State—
Recent form.
Wyoming's path back starts with lettermen, not just newcomers — 28 of them return from a team that, whatever the record said, wasn't devoid of talent so much as it was searching for continuity. A signature result against a bowl team like New Mexico would be the clearest evidence yet that Sawvel's rebuild is actually trending somewhere.
New Mexico Lobos
(0)
Fully healthy — no injuries on ESPN's report
Wyoming Cowboys
(0)
Fully healthy — no injuries on ESPN's report
Injury report — info via ESPN.
By the time this one kicks off, both programs will have played most of a Mountain West slate that no longer includes Fresno State or San Diego State, so there won't be much guesswork left about who's actually good. Right now, though, this reads like a program with proof of concept hosting one still looking for it.
