New Mexico State Aggies at Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders
Sat Nov 28 · 1:00 PM CT
By Pablo SanchezUpdated 7h ago·2 min read
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New Mexico State and Middle Tennessee closed out 2025 with an overtime thriller in Las Cruces. A year later, they run it back in Murfreesboro.
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NMSUMTSU
NMSUMTSU
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Best BetMiddle Tennessee
Middle Tennessee closed out last year's meeting with the tougher, more composed finish, and home crowds in these late-season Conference USA games tend to matter. NM State still has real question marks at quarterback depth after last year's injury scare, which makes betting against the Blue Raiders at home a little risky until we see how camp shakes out.
New Mexico State
+TK King had 178 yards, 2 TDs in last meeting
+Progress under Sanchez relative to NM State history
+Damante can push the ball down the field
−1-14 under Sanchez when allowing 400-plus yards
−Backup QB struggled to finish last year's finale
−2-6 in CUSA play last season
Middle Tennessee
+Won last year's meeting in overtime
+Gagliano threw 3 TDs, no INTs in the finale
+Adding transfer pieces like RB Antonio Martin Jr.
−Back-to-back 3-9 seasons under Derek Mason
−Lost OL coach Kendall Simmons mid-season
−Hasn't been bowl eligible since 2022
Both programs are still shaping their 2026 rosters this summer, but the season finale is already circled after last year's finish. Middle Tennessee needed overtime to beat New Mexico State 31-24 on November 29, with Roman Gagliano throwing 3 touchdowns and AJ Jones catching the walk-off score. NM State's backup quarterback, Parker Awad, had to try to finish the game after starter Adam Damante went down late in regulation, and the Aggies' final drive died on back-to-back false starts.
That finish says a lot about where each program actually stands. Tony Sanchez is entering year 3 in Las Cruces off a 4-8 season that, by NM State standards, counts as progress -- the Aggies had won 3 games or fewer in 13 of the previous 17 years before that. Middle Tennessee, meanwhile, has now posted back-to-back 3-9 seasons under Derek Mason and is chasing its first bowl trip since 2022, which puts real pressure on this stretch of the schedule even in July.
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NMSU New Mexico State
MTSU Middle Tennessee
The roster churn this offseason has gone in different directions for each side. Middle Tennessee lost its offensive line coach, Kendall Simmons, midseason back on November 4, and has been working the transfer portal hard, adding pieces like running back Antonio Martin Jr. from Kansas State. NM State's staff is betting on a new-look offense to fix a defense-driven problem -- the Aggies were 4-1 last year when they held opponents under 400 yards and 0-7 when they didn't, so this rematch will likely hinge on which team's skill guys, like NM State's TK King, who torched MTSU for 178 yards and 2 touchdowns in the finale, get consistent room to work.
New Mexico State Aggies
Nov 21?vs Delaware—
Nov 14?@ Missouri State—
Nov 7?vs Liberty—
Oct 28?vs Jacksonville State—
Oct 21?@ Sam Houston—
Oct 7?@ Florida International—
Oct 1?vs Western Kentucky—
Sep 26?vs New Mexico—
Sep 12?@ Hawai'i—
Sep 5?vs Mercyhurst—
Aug 29?@ Florida State—
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders
Nov 21?@ Sam Houston—
Nov 14?@ Liberty—
Nov 7?vs Western Kentucky—
Oct 28?vs Kennesaw State—
Oct 20?@ Florida International—
Oct 13?vs Delaware—
Oct 2?@ Kansas—
Sep 26?@ Jacksonville State—
Sep 19?vs Nevada—
Sep 12?@ Marshall—
Sep 5?vs Murray State—
Recent form.
Neither team enters this one with much margin for error. NM State is 1-14 under Sanchez when it allows 400-plus yards, a number that has to come down if the Aggies want a different result than last November. Middle Tennessee's issue is more about consistency across a full season than any one unit -- Gagliano was sharp in the finale, but a team hasn't finished the year over .500 under Mason yet, and the pressure to turn that around only grows the longer this stays a rebuild.
This is a Conference USA finale-type matchup between two programs still trying to prove they've turned a corner, not a marquee showcase, but the storyline carries over cleanly from last year's overtime finish. Whoever handles the physical, late-season style of game better -- and avoids the kind of fourth-quarter mistakes that sank NM State in the first meeting -- should walk away with it again.
