Missouri State went 0-4 away from Springfield before its trip to Miami and then lost 23-20 at FIU, so the Bears are now winless on the road. Their 3 wins have all come at Plaster Stadium. They went 3-1 at home before last week, including a 24-21 win over Kennesaw State and a 24-3 handling of Sam Houston. This is a home game, which counts for a lot with this team.
Both teams played Western Kentucky, and the results flipped by the exact same score. New Mexico State beat the Hilltoppers 34-13 in Las Cruces. Missouri State lost to them 34-13 on the road. Both also lost at FIU, though not the same way. Missouri State lost by 3 and had a shot late. New Mexico State scored 3 points and lost by 19.
The question is which Missouri State defense shows up. This is the group that gave up just 3 points to Sam Houston at home. It's also the group that gave up 61 at Delaware. New Mexico State's offense has been just as up and down, which makes it hard to read either side. If the Aggies get Williams going early, they can keep this close. If they look like they did against Jacksonville State, it could get away from them early.
The early forecast for Springfield is mild: mid-50s, clear and light wind. That could change by Saturday. Neither team is ranked, and this won't settle anything in the conference race. But for New Mexico State the bowl hope is on the line, and Missouri State plays much better at home than on the road. That's enough to make it worth watching.
