Two Conference USA rebuilds collide on Wednesday, October 21 — and after a combined 6 wins between them last fall, both sides would love for this one to look like progress.
Bush’s Picks
NMSUSHSU
NMSUSHSU
OverUnder
Best BetSam Houston
Sam Houston is still just a year removed from a 2-10 season, but the pieces around Landyn Locke are further along than anything New Mexico State can currently say about its own quarterback room. The Aggies are still sorting out a starter between Damante, Hedden and McLeod, which is a shaky spot to be in on the road in late October. Back the Bearkats to get the win at home.
New Mexico State
+TK King led all of CUSA in receiving yards per game
+Sone Aupiu a proven playmaker at linebacker
+Tony Sanchez enters year 3 with continuity
−Finished 4-8 overall, 2-6 in CUSA in 2025
−Quarterback job unsettled among 3 candidates
−Road trip after a brutal early-season stretch
Sam Houston
+5 Bearkats landed on the CUSA preseason watch list
+Locke and McCaskill both back for year 2
+Bowers Stadium homefield finally returns
−Finished 2-10 overall, 1-7 in CUSA in 2025
−First-year FBS transition under Phil Longo was rough
−Locke has just 5 career games of experience
New Mexico State heads into Huntsville with its starting job still unresolved. Adam Damante started the final 2 games of 2025 and, according to head coach Tony Sanchez, knows the offense best, but Trey Hedden reportedly stood out in fall scrimmages and Kalani McLeod is also in the mix. Sam Houston doesn't have that problem: Landyn Locke, who played in 5 games as a true freshman last year, now heads into year 2 as the presumptive starter, with Alton McCaskill lined up behind him in the backfield. Whichever quarterback situation settles first tends to be the one that controls tempo on Wednesday, October 21.
Sam Houston enters year 2 under Phil Longo with real incentive to show growth. The Bearkats went 2-10 in year one, playing every 'home' game at Shell Energy Stadium in Houston while Bowers Stadium underwent renovations. That's over now, and getting an actual home crowd back matters for a program still finding its footing at the FBS level. Five Bearkats — Locke, McCaskill, kick returner Tim Burns Jr., and defensive tackles Dylan Frazier and Darien Jackson — landed on Conference USA's preseason watch list, more recognition than New Mexico State picked up heading into the season.
Show fees
7:00 PM CT
Spread
ML
Total
NMSU New Mexico State
SHSU Sam Houston
New Mexico State isn't walking in empty-handed, though. Wide receiver TK King led all of Conference USA in receiving yards per game last season at 73.5, and linebacker Sone Aupiu was the Aggies' third-leading tackler with 68 stops to go with 5.5 tackles for loss. Neither program has much beyond individual talent to hang its hat on right now — this is two 2025 also-rans looking for a sign they've turned a corner.
New Mexico State Aggies
Oct 7?@ Florida International—
Oct 1?vs Western Kentucky—
Sep 26?vs New Mexico—
Sep 12?@ Hawai'i—
Sep 5?vs Mercyhurst—
Aug 29?@ Florida State—
Sam Houston Bearkats
Oct 14?vs Western Kentucky—
Oct 8?@ Liberty—
Sep 25?@ Texas Tech—
Sep 19?vs Nicholls—
Sep 12?vs Tulsa—
Sep 5?@ Troy—
Recent form.
New Mexico State finished 4-8 overall and 2-6 in CUSA a year ago; Sam Houston finished 2-10 and 1-7. Both marks were near the bottom of the league, but Sam Houston's came with an obvious asterisk — a road-only home schedule and a first-year staff still installing new systems. If Longo's group looks meaningfully sharper with an actual crowd behind it, this is the kind of game that would show it.
Neither team walks into Wednesday, October 21 as a bowl favorite, but a wide-open CUSA middle rewards whoever strings together wins in the back half of October. For New Mexico State, that starts with settling on a quarterback in a hurry. For Sam Houston, it means proving last year's record was more circumstance than talent.
