There's no betting board for this one yet, so it comes down to how good each team actually is. Pitt's 5-0 looks better than it plays. There are 118 points in wins over Miami (OH) and Bucknell, but the Panthers scored 12 to beat UCF, then needed to come back from 14-0 and get a 36-yard miss from John Love to escape Virginia Tech. Narduzzi summed it up himself: his team keeps "finding a different way to win."
Bucknell59-0
UNC's best result is still the 15-10 opener at TCU, a grinding road win that looks like the version of this team that travels well. The worry is that the Tar Heels have played Notre Dame and now go on the road to an unbeaten team the next Saturday. Pitt played Friday night, so it gets an extra day of rest before this one. Pitt has also played 4 of its 5 games at home and will be back in front of its own crowd.
Most of North Carolina's injury report dates back to the Clemson week: receivers Kobe Chapman, Christopher Sadler and Carnell Warren, tight ends J. Washington and J. Warren, kicker R. Verhoff and defensive lineman M. Abou Jaoude were all listed out. How many of them are back by next Saturday matters a lot, especially for the receiver room. On Pitt's side, receiver M. Knight is out with no timetable, and that hurts more if it's a backup quarterback throwing the passes.
The weather shouldn't matter: 71 degrees, mostly sunny, 4 mph of wind and a 2% chance of rain. So it comes down to whether Pitt's defense can keep winning low-scoring games without its starting quarterback, and whether Belichick can take advantage of a team that has trailed more than a 5-0 record suggests.