North Dakota State Bison at Air Force Falcons

Sat Sep 12 · 9:00 PM CT
By Pablo SanchezUpdated 8d ago·2 min read
North Dakota State BisonNDSU
Air Force FalconsAF
AT
9:00 PM CT

North Dakota State has ten FCS titles and zero FBS games. That changes at Falcon Stadium, where the Bison's jump to the Mountain West kicks off against a program desperate to shake off its worst season in over a decade.

Bush’s Picks
NDSUAF
NDSUAF
OverUnder
Best BetAir Force

Air Force gets the nod here on pure situational grounds — a veteran coaching staff in Troy Calhoun's 20th year, a home crowd, and a quarterback in Liam Szarka who's already flashed real production in extended snaps. NDSU brings the pedigree, but asking a first-time FBS starter to win his debut on the road against an unfamiliar option scheme is a lot to overcome. The value here is in betting on the program with the stability edge in year one of a massive transition for the other side.

North Dakota State
  • 10 FCS titles since 2011, dynastic infrastructure
  • Preseason No. 1 in final FCS coaches' poll
  • Went 12-0 in regular season last year
  • First-ever FBS game, first-time starting QB
  • Lost 8 starters off 2025 roster
  • Shocking 28-29 playoff exit to Illinois State
Air Force
  • Troy Calhoun in 20th season, deep continuity
  • Home opener at Falcon Stadium
  • Szarka averaged 31 ppg in extended 2025 snaps
  • Coming off 4-8, worst finish since 2013
  • Lost top 4 defensive line contributors
  • No transfer portal to patch holes quickly

This one is bigger than a September nonconference tilt. NDSU officially left FCS for the Mountain West this offseason, and the Air Force game is the Bison's first-ever conference game as an FBS program. Nathan Hayes, who's thrown just 63 career passes, steps into the starting job for a team that's used to blowing out FCS opponents, not being the new kid on the block. Air Force, meanwhile, is coming off a 4-8 season, its worst finish since 2013, and needs a signature statement to prove last year was a blip and not a trend.

Troy Calhoun is entering his 20th season running the option in Colorado Springs, and there's a real reason for optimism under center. QB Liam Szarka took over late in 2025, and in games where he played 40-plus snaps, the Falcons averaged 31 points a game. That's the version of Air Force this program needs against a Bison defense that's never faced a triple-option look at this speed or discipline.

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The concern for Air Force is up front on defense, where the top four contributors from a year ago are gone, and this program doesn't lean on the transfer portal to patch holes the way most FBS teams do — it rebuilds through its own pipeline, full stop. Linebacker Blake Fletcher returns as an All-Mountain West honoree to anchor things, but replacing that defensive line production against a Bison offense that just went 12-0 in the regular season is no small task.

NDSU isn't walking into Falcon Stadium unscathed either. The Bison's 2025 campaign ended in stunning fashion — a 28-29 loss to Illinois State as the No. 1 seed, snapping 15 straight years of reaching at least the FCS quarterfinters. Eight starters are gone and 11 players hit the transfer portal, even as head coach Tim Polasek, fresh off a 7-year extension, brought in nearly a dozen replacements.

North Dakota State Bison
North Dakota State Bison
Sep 5?vs Fordham
Aug 29?vs Jacksonville State
Air Force Falcons
Air Force Falcons
Sep 5?vs Duquesne
Recent form.

Still, this is North Dakota State. They're the preseason No. 1 in the final FCS coaches' poll for a reason, and the transition period comes with real restrictions — no CFP, limited bowl eligibility for two years — but no urgency deficit. Polasek has called the move 'all gas and no brakes,' and a program with this much sustained infrastructure doesn't just forget how to win because the jersey patch changed conferences.

North Dakota State Bison
North Dakota State Bison
(0)
Fully healthy — no injuries on ESPN's report
Air Force Falcons
Air Force Falcons
(0)
Fully healthy — no injuries on ESPN's report
Injury report — info via ESPN.

Whichever way this breaks, it's a measuring-stick game for both programs — Air Force trying to prove 2025 was the outlier, NDSU trying to prove FCS dominance travels up a level. Neither team has ever lined up against the other, so there's no history to lean on, just two programs at very different points of a rebuild trying to set the tone for their season in Colorado Springs.

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