These two teams have 2 common opponents from the last month, and the results go in opposite directions. Both lost to New Mexico: NDSU 21-16 in Albuquerque, Hawai'i 21-10 at home. UTEP is the bigger gap. The Bison beat the Miners 31-7 in Fargo, and Hawai'i needed a late stand to win 17-14 in El Paso. On paper that's a 3-touchdown team against a 3-point team. Football rarely works out that neatly, though, and a 5-hour flight is part of this one.
Look at where each team's games were played. In the last 5, NDSU went 3-0 at home and 0-2 on the road, scoring 7 at UNLV and 16 at New Mexico. Hawai'i has done the opposite. It lost to San José State and New Mexico in Honolulu, then won at Northern Illinois 56-21 and at UTEP. NDSU did win at Air Force and Sacramento State back in September, so this isn't a team that can't travel. But the 2 most recent road trips are the 2 games where the Bison offense stalled.
The stakes aren't equal. The NCAA cleared transitioning programs for immediate postseason access, so NDSU's bowl spot is already secured, and Northern Illinois and San José State are still left on its schedule. At 3-6, Hawai'i is mostly playing for the season it still has, with a quarterback who has played well lately. The early forecast for Honolulu on Saturday, November 14, is 74 degrees with a chance of light drizzle. Nobody should take a forecast 5 days out as settled.
