The Bison rebuilt a lot on the fly to get here. They lost the two engines of last year's rushing attack in a backfield that combined for 33 touchdowns, plus leading receiver Bryce Lance, who averaged over 21 yards a catch before signing with the Saints. Head coach Tim Polasek patched the roster with 9 transfer additions, and guard Griffin Empey, a 2-time FCS All-American, anchors an offensive line that otherwise has real questions at tackle and center. New Mexico's roster carries far less turnover, and safety Jaxton Eck comes in as the league's preseason Defensive Player of the Year.
None of that turnover has dented outside expectations for NDSU nationally, with some FBS-transition projections still pegging the Bison for an unbeaten season, while College Football News has them closer to an 8-4 debut. New Mexico's side of the ledger reads just as confident: this program hasn't finished above .500 in a decade before last year's breakout, and Eck's group wants to prove 9-4 was a floor, not a ceiling.
New Mexico is coming off the best season the program has had in years, and the pieces that got them there are mostly back in Albuquerque.
Layne returns as a full-time starter now instead of a midseason answer, and the Lobos bring back four starters up front to protect him along with playmakers at running back and tight end. NDSU counters with a defensive back room that stayed largely intact, led by safeties Darius Givance and Taylen Eady, which gives the Bison a chance to make this a low-scoring, field-position fight rather than letting Layne pick them apart through the air.
The bigger question for NDSU isn't talent, it's translation. FCS dominance doesn't automatically carry over against Mountain West speed, and this is the kind of game where a program finds out fast whether its transfer additions and returning pieces are enough. For New Mexico, it's about proving last year wasn't a one-off before a favorite target gets circled on everyone else's schedule too.