North Texas won a program-record 12 games last year and lost almost everyone who did it. Texas State kept its quarterback and its coach. That gap is the whole story here.
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Best BetTexas State
Texas State returns a quarterback who accounted for 38 total touchdowns last season and a coach who's never had a losing year in San Marcos — that's a real, tangible edge over a North Texas team that hasn't even settled its starting quarterback. Backing the Bobcats to win outright is the low-variance play here given how much North Texas has to answer before September.
North Texas
+Program-record 12-2 season and New Mexico Bowl win in 2025
+Top-6 scoring offense three straight years, new faces each time
+Jahiem White brings proven 844-yard rushing production
−Returns zero starters from last year's team
−Entire coaching staff, including Eric Morris, left for Oklahoma State
−Starting QB still undecided among three transfers/holdovers
Texas State
+Brad Jackson returns off a 3,224-yard, 38-total-TD season
+G.J. Kinne has never had a losing season in 3 years
+Bowl win in every season under Kinne, program stability
−Lost starting center Brock Riker to Penn State
−Greg Burrell recovering from offseason shoulder surgery
−First season adjusting to a brand-new Pac-12 conference
This one's a study in contrasts before it's even a study in Xs and Os. Texas State enters its fourth year under G.J. Kinne, who hasn't had a losing season yet and has a bowl win in all three. North Texas is starting over completely under first-year coach Neal Brown, who inherited a program that, along with Iowa State, returns zero starters from a 12-2 team. Brown's quarterback room is still unsettled, with transfers Tayven Jackson and Chaston Ditta pushing Chris Jimerson Jr. for the job — reports have Jackson as the favorite, but nothing's been made official.
Texas State's answer at quarterback isn't a question at all. Brad Jackson threw for 3,224 yards and 21 touchdowns last season while adding 744 yards and 17 more scores on the ground, then walked away with Armed Forces Bowl MVP honors before deciding to run it back for 2026. That's the kind of returning production North Texas simply doesn't have anywhere on its roster, let alone at the most important position on the field.
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The Bobcats aren't perfect, either. Center Brock Riker left for Penn State, receiver Greg Burrell is working back from offseason shoulder surgery, and Texas State is about to try to prove it belongs in the new-look Pac-12 after 13 years in the Sun Belt. None of that changes the fact Kinne's program has continuity North Texas can only dream of two months out from kickoff.
North Texas Mean Green
Sep 12?vs UNLV—
Sep 5?@ Indiana—
Texas State Bobcats
Sep 12?vs UTSA—
Sep 5?@ Texas—
Recent form.
North Texas has a habit worth respecting, though. The Mean Green have fielded a top-6 yards-per-game offense three years running with a new starting quarterback, running back and receiver each time — Neal Brown is just asking that machine to do it with an entirely new coaching staff attached. West Virginia transfer Jahiem White, who ran for 844 yards and 7 touchdowns in 2024, gives Denton a proven ball-carrier even as the passing game sorts itself out.
North Texas Mean Green
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Fully healthy — no injuries on ESPN's report
Texas State Bobcats
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Fully healthy — no injuries on ESPN's report
Injury report — info via ESPN.
Saturday, September 19 lands in Week 3 territory for both programs, well after North Texas opens against reigning national champ Indiana on the road — a game that will tell Brown a lot about where his rebuild actually stands before this one even kicks off. Texas State, meanwhile, gets to open its Pac-12 chapter with its best player still on the roster, which is about as clean a head start as a program changing conferences could ask for.
