North Texas is coming off the best season in program history. Tulsa is coming off a season it'd rather forget. This one has classic trap-game written all over it.
Bush’s Picks
UNTTLSA
UNTTLSA
OverUnder
Best BetNorth Texas
North Texas brings a 12-2 roster and a deeper talent base into this one, even with the coaching and quarterback change. Tulsa is a year removed from a 7-16 stretch under its last coach and is still finding its footing under Tre Lamb, which makes backing the Mean Green to win outright the more defensible lean until Tulsa proves otherwise.
North Texas
+Coming off historic 12-2, AP-ranked 2025 season
+Elite 2025 offense, No. 1 nationally in scoring
+Portal backfield adds Jahiem White, Nick Osho
−Lost head coach Eric Morris to Oklahoma State
−Lost starting QB Drew Mestemaker to Oklahoma State
−Defense ranked just 78th in points allowed in 2025
Tulsa
+New QB Dexter Williams II adds dual-threat dimension
+Year 2 under Tre Lamb after roster reset
+Motivated for a signature win against ranked-caliber foe
−Finished just 4-8 in Lamb's debut season
−Program still recovering from 7-16 stretch under Wilson
−Heavy roster turnover breeds uncertainty in year 2
North Texas went 12-2 last year, cracked the AP poll for the first time since 1959, and scored 45.1 points a game behind an offense that ranked 1st nationally in points. Then the two guys most responsible for it walked out the door — head coach Eric Morris and quarterback Drew Mestemaker both left for Oklahoma State. Neal Brown now inherits a roster loaded with talent but without its architect or its trigger man, and this Thursday night trip to Tulsa on Thursday, October 1 is an early gut-check on whether the machine still runs without them.
Tulsa enters year 2 under Tre Lamb after a 4-8 debut that came on the heels of a genuinely ugly stretch — Kevin Wilson went 7-16 over two seasons with nine losses by more than 30 points before getting fired mid-2024. Lamb brought in a new staff and leaned hard on the portal again this offseason, headlined by quarterback Dexter Williams II, a dual-threat transfer who's bounced through Indiana, Georgia Southern and Kennesaw State. The Golden Hurricane also added skill talent like David Wells Jr. and Trequan Jones to try to speed up the rebuild.
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UNT North Texas
TLSA Tulsa
North Texas restocked its own backfield through the portal too, bringing in Jahiem White and Nick Osho to pair with returning pieces, which suggests Brown wants to lean on the run rather than ask a new quarterback to replicate Mestemaker's numbers right away. That's the swing factor here: last year's Mean Green offense was historic, but it was historic with a specific coach and quarterback calling the shots. A new staff, a new starter under center, and a road trip against a division rival team hungry for a signature win is exactly the kind of spot where a rebuilding program can spring an upset.
North Texas Mean Green
(0)
Fully healthy — no injuries on ESPN's report
Tulsa Golden Hurricane
(0)
Fully healthy — no injuries on ESPN's report
Injury report — info via ESPN.
North Texas Mean Green
Sep 26?vs Houston Christian—
Sep 19?@ Texas State—
Sep 12?vs UNLV—
Sep 5?@ Indiana—
Tulsa Golden Hurricane
Sep 26?@ Arkansas—
Sep 19?vs East Texas A&M—
Sep 12?@ Sam Houston—
Sep 5?vs Oklahoma State—
Recent form.
Tulsa's floor is still low after a 4-8 season, and the roster turnover cuts both ways — new faces can mean chemistry issues just as easily as an infusion of talent. But this is also a program that's shown flashes of being feisty at home under Lamb, and North Texas hasn't proven anything yet with its new pieces in live competition. Until Brown's group shows it can operate at the same level without last year's cast, treat this as a live spot rather than a lock.
