North Texas is trying to run it back after the best season in program history — except almost nobody who built it is still around. UTSA, meanwhile, just keeps quietly winning bowl games and hopes its home floor at the Alamodome carries it through another rebuild of its own.
Bush’s Picks
UNTUTSA
UNTUTSA
OverUnder
Best BetUTSA
Back UTSA to win outright here. Traylor's program has been remarkably steady, McCown returns under center, and the offensive line stays mostly intact — that continuity is worth more than usual against a North Texas team replacing its head coach and staff wholesale. The Mean Green still have talent, but new-staff installs on the road are exactly the spot where good rosters lose winnable games early in a season.
North Texas
+Went 12-2, led nation in scoring in 2025
+Added RB Jahiem White, 844 yards in 2024
+Roster still has proven skill-position talent
−Entirely new coaching staff under Neal Brown
−Lost the architect of last year's breakout season
−Tough non-conference slate to open the year
UTSA
+7-6 with bowl win, sixth straight winning season
+Kept QB Owen McCown and O-line core
+Traylor is 25-1 at home vs conference foes
−Lost top WR, both top tight ends
−Lost best D-line and secondary pieces
−Only 7-6 overall, less proven ceiling than NT
This one's a study in contrasts dressed up as a conference game. North Texas went 12-2 in 2025, ran away with 11 regular-season wins, and led the country in scoring at 45.1 points a game — then watched head coach Eric Morris bolt for Oklahoma State and take much of his staff with him. Neal Brown, fresh off stints at West Virginia and Troy, inherits a roster that overachieved once already and now has to prove it wasn't a one-man show.
UTSA's story is less dramatic but arguably more stable. Jeff Traylor kept his job, kept his offensive line, and kept quarterback Owen McCown to build around after a 7-6 season that ended with a First Responder Bowl blowout of FIU, 57-20. That's UTSA's third straight bowl win and sixth consecutive winning season under Traylor — a run of consistency North Texas is only now trying to establish.
Show fees
11:00 PM CT
Spread
ML
Total
UNT North Texas
UTSA UTSA
The Roadrunners did lose plenty up front on defense and their top receiving options, which is why the transfer portal mattered so much this offseason for both sides. UTSA brought in running back Brandon High from Cal and edge rusher Elijah Baldwin from UTEP to patch the holes, while North Texas added West Virginia running back Jahiem White to help soften the blow of a totally new coaching staff learning the personnel on the fly.
North Texas Mean Green
Nov 6?vs Rice—
Oct 29?vs Florida Atlantic—
Oct 9?vs Charlotte—
Oct 1?@ Tulsa—
Sep 26?vs Houston Christian—
Sep 19?@ Texas State—
Sep 12?vs UNLV—
Sep 5?@ Indiana—
UTSA Roadrunners
Nov 5?@ Florida Atlantic—
Oct 16?vs Navy—
Oct 8?vs South Florida—
Oct 2?@ Rice—
Sep 25?vs Colorado State—
Sep 19?@ Texas—
Sep 12?@ Texas State—
Sep 5?vs Vaqueros—
Recent form.
Home matters here. Traylor has gone 33-5 at the Alamodome since taking over, including a scarcely believable 25-1 mark against conference opponents. That's the kind of number that should scare anyone walking in with a brand-new coaching staff still figuring out road environments in a new league season, even a North Texas team that was one of the best stories in the sport a year ago.
None of that guarantees anything by November. Neal Brown has a full offseason and a real training camp to install his system before this one kicks off, and the Mean Green's roster still has the offensive pieces that lit up scoreboards in 2025. Whether that talent has been reshaped into Brown's identity by the time North Texas gets to San Antonio is the whole ballgame.
North Texas Mean Green
(0)
Fully healthy — no injuries on ESPN's report
UTSA Roadrunners
(0)
Fully healthy — no injuries on ESPN's report
Injury report — info via ESPN.
This is still an early-season projection more than a scouting report — depth charts, camp battles, and QB1 jobs can all shift plenty between now and Friday, November 13. But as a season-defining litmus test for a first-year regime on the road against a program that simply doesn't lose much at home, this is a good early gauge of how real North Texas's 2026 rebuild actually is.
