Notre Dame Fighting Irish at North Carolina Tar Heels

Oct 3, 202611:00 AM CTChapel Hill, NC
By JR·2 min read

TLDR: Notre Dame goes to Chapel Hill with a playoff résumé to protect. North Carolina hosts them while its program is still getting over a 7-week investigation and a defensive coordinator who left in the middle of the season.

Week 5 · SAT OCT 3, 11:00 AM CT
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Kickoff77°10 mph

Notre Dame, led by returning QB CJ Carr, visits a North Carolina program coming out of an investigation that cost it its GM and defensive coordinator. Carolina's clearest sign of life was leading Clemson most of the game before giving up 2 late touchdowns. Whether that defense can hold up late against an Irish team that has been winning its second halves likely decides the margin.

Notre Dame Fighting Irish
  • CJ Carr returning, in the Heisman conversation
  • Strong second halves, pulled away from Michigan State
  • Second straight road trip after Purdue
  • Early kickoff away from home can bring a slow start
North Carolina Tar Heels
  • Led Clemson almost the entire game
  • Home crowd at Kenan Stadium
  • Defensive coordinator resigned in the middle of the season
  • Gave up 2 late touchdowns to lose at Clemson

The football story starts at quarterback. CJ Carr is back under center for Marcus Freeman, now in his 5th season in South Bend, and the Irish came into the year as the way-too-early national title favorite with Carr in the Heisman conversation. North Carolina is still figuring out what it is under Bill Belichick. His first season ended 4-8, and year 2 has been more noise than progress.

That noise matters for this game. UNC's investigation into the football program ended this week. General manager Michael Lombardi resigned during the probe, and defensive coordinator Steve Belichick, Bill's son, resigned too, effective when his medical leave ends in late October. The chancellor backed the head coach but said the support 'comes with expectations.' So the defense that has to stop Carr is coming off a coordinator change in the middle of the season. The board has Notre Dame as a huge road favorite, which tells you how the market sees it.

The Clemson game is the one Carolina fans will want to forget and the one to study before Saturday, October 3. The Tar Heels led that game the whole way until a weather delay. Then Clemson scored 2 touchdowns in the final 5:01 to take it. That's two separate problems: they were good enough to lead a good opponent for 55 minutes, and they couldn't close. Notre Dame beat Michigan State 27-10 on the strength of another big second half, so the late part of this game is where the gap should show.

09/26W@Purdue49-10
09/19WvsMichigan State27-10
09/12WvsRice52-0
09/06WvsWisconsin41-13
09/19L@Clemson20-28
09/12WvsEast Tennessee State35-3
08/29W@TCU15-10

This is also the second straight road trip for the Irish, who were at Purdue the week before. An early kickoff in Chapel Hill after back-to-back weeks away isn't a trap on paper, but it's the kind of spot where a big favorite can come out slow. If Carolina is going to hang around, it needs a fast start again and a defense that doesn't give way late this time.

The early forecast for Kenan calls for low 80s and light drizzle with barely any wind. It's 6 days out, so don't make plans around it, but it isn't a weather game as things stand. Notre Dame wants a clean road win that keeps its playoff résumé intact before the November tests against Miami and SMU. For North Carolina, it's a chance to show the team can play a full 60 minutes, whatever is going on in the building.

Notre Dame Fighting Irish at North Carolina Tar Heels — Notre Dame Walks Into the Chapel Hill Mess | Polymarket Odds · Barstool Bush