Brent Venables enters year 5 off a 10-3 season that ended with a CFP appearance and a loss to Alabama, and his defense held up even as the Mateer-led offense sputtered down the stretch. That's the version of Oklahoma showing up this fall — a team that doesn't need its quarterback to be perfect to win most weeks. Mississippi State, meanwhile, is leaning on defensive coordinator Arnett being back for year 3 under Jeff Lebby to fix a unit that got torched too often last season. The offensive line is the bigger concern in Starkville — the Bulldogs were among the worst in the country in pass protection, and the ground game never found consistency.
This is Mississippi State's brutal reality entering 2026: outlets are projecting something in the 4-8 range for Lebby's third team, with almost no scheduling breaks to lean on. Oklahoma's projections split — some have the Sooners knocking on the SEC's top tier, others see a more middling 8-4 finish — but either way this is a step up in class for a Mississippi State team still trying to find its offensive footing.
Where this gets interesting for Mississippi State is if Taylor's dual-threat ability translates into more consistent drives than Shapen managed in 2025 — his 15 touchdowns against 8 interceptions weren't bad, but the Bulldogs need more explosiveness to hang with SEC competition. The margin for error is thin against a Sooners roster with real playoff pedigree just a year removed from a CFP berth.
Mateer's thumb is the swing factor for the entire season, not just this game — Venables has already talked openly about how the hand still affects how Mateer grips it, even without a wrap. If he's fully himself again, Oklahoma's ceiling looks a lot like the version that beat Michigan a year ago. If not, Mississippi State's improved defensive coaching staff at least gives the Bulldogs a puncher's chance at keeping this from getting out of hand early.