Oklahoma State Cowboys at Arizona State Sun Devils

A year ago this was the worst team in the Big 12 hosting a Big 12 title contender. By the time these two meet in Tempe, both programs will have rebuilt around a completely different quarterback room — that's the whole story here.

Bush’s Picks

OKSTASU

OKSTASU

OverUnder

Best BetArizona State

Arizona State gets the nod here mostly on program continuity — Dillingham is in year 4 with the same defensive infrastructure, while Oklahoma State is asking a first-year staff and an imported quarterback to hit the ground running in true road environments. The home line in Tempe should matter against a Cowboys team still finding its identity in November.

Oklahoma State

• +New coach Eric Morris imported a No. 1 scoring offense
• +Brought ~20 players/staff from 11-2 North Texas squad
• −Finished 1-11, 0-9 Big 12 in 2025
• −Entirely new system/roster, defense unproven

Arizona State

• +8-5, 6-3 Big 12, Sun Bowl trip in 2025
• +Dillingham entering 4th year, staff stability
• −Both 2025 QBs (Leavitt, Sims) gone from roster
• −Grueling travel slate before this game, new starters everywhere

Start with Stillwater, because the transformation there is the bigger swing. Oklahoma State finished 1-11 in 2025, went 0-9 in Big 12 play, and fired Mike Gundy in September after two decades on the job. The Cowboys answered by poaching Eric Morris off an 11-2 North Texas team, and he didn't come alone — he brought most of his staff and nearly 20 Mean Green players with him, quarterback Drew Mestemaker included. Morris's offense averaged 52.9 points a game last year. Whatever else is true about this OSU roster, it won't be boring.

Arizona State's turnover is different in kind. The Sun Devils went 8-5 with a Sun Bowl trip in 2025, but both quarterbacks who played meaningful snaps are gone — Sam Leavitt transferred to LSU after a Lisfranc injury ended his season, and Jeff Sims declared for the NFL Draft off a 375-yard, 3-touchdown Sun Bowl finale. Kenny Dillingham's staff spent the spring auditioning Kentucky transfer Cutter Boley, Michigan transfer Mikey Keene and a couple of younger arms, and as of this writing the job is unsettled — reporting has Boley with the inside track, but Dillingham has said it won't be decided until fall camp.

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OKST Oklahoma State

ASU Arizona State

So this is less a measuring-stick game than two staffs betting on continuity. Dillingham is entering year 4 in Tempe, still one of the more respected offensive minds in the conference even with Jordyn Tyson and his old backfield gone. Morris is running his first Big 12 season with a transplanted system that lit up the Group of 5. Which program has more juice by late November is genuinely an open question this far out.

Oklahoma State Cowboys

Nov 13?vs Texas Tech—

Nov 6?@ Kansas State—

Oct 30?@ Iowa State—

Oct 16?@ Houston—

Oct 9?vs UCF—

Sep 25?@ West Virginia—

Sep 19?vs Murray State—

Sep 12?vs Oregon—

Sep 5?@ Tulsa—

Arizona State Sun Devils

Nov 13?@ UCF—

Nov 6?vs Colorado—

Oct 30?@ BYU—

Oct 16?@ Texas Tech—

Oct 9?vs Hawai'i—

Oct 2?vs Baylor—

Sep 19?@ Kansas—

Sep 12?@ Texas A&M—

Sep 5?vs Morgan State—

The schedule context matters too. Arizona State's slate is a grind — Texas A&M, a trip to London for Kansas, road games at Texas Tech and BYU, a neutral-site date with UCF in Orlando, and the Arizona rivalry game all sit on the calendar before this one. That's a lot of miles and a lot of hits for a team breaking in a new starter at the most important position on the field. Oklahoma State's ask is simpler on paper: stay competitive, get to bowl eligibility, and let Morris's system do the rest against a Big 12 slate that also throws Houston and Texas Tech at them.

Oklahoma State Cowboys

(0)

Fully healthy — no injuries on ESPN's report

Arizona State Sun Devils

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Fully healthy — no injuries on ESPN's report

None of this resolves cleanly in July. OSU was the worst team in the conference a year ago and is rebuilding on the fly with a new system; ASU was a bowl team a year ago and is rebuilding at the one position you can least afford to wing. Both stories are believable, and by November one of them will have held up a lot better than the other.