Oklahoma State and Iowa State are both mid-rebuild under brand-new head coaches, and this one might decide who's actually ahead of schedule.
Bush’s Picks
OKSTISU
OKSTISU
OverUnder
Best BetOklahoma State
Oklahoma State walks in with the better outside expectations of these two rebuilds — Mestemaker's a proven commodity in Morris's scheme and the Cowboys imported a much deeper Power 4 transfer class than Iowa State did. Iowa State's home win streak in this series is real, but this isn't the same Cyclones roster that won it last year after losing 55 players to the portal. Take Oklahoma State's talent gap over Iowa State's home comfort.
Oklahoma State
+Mestemaker is a proven, top-100-caliber returning starter
+26 transfers arrive with Power 4 experience
+ESPN pegs OSU as most-improved new-coach team
−Carries an 18-game Big 12 losing streak into the year
−Just 4 combined wins over the last two seasons
−Brand-new staff still installing its system
Iowa State
+Won 2 straight vs Oklahoma State, including 20-13 last year
+Home date flagged as a must-win on the 2026 slate
+Raynor arrives with huge statistical transfer production
−Lost 55 players to the portal, 24 following Campbell to Penn State
−Starting QB Becht left with the old staff
−Tied for the Big 12's lowest offensive/defensive grades
Neither of these programs looks like the one that just made the trip 12 months ago. Iowa State gutted its quarterback room and most of its two-deep when Matt Campbell left for Penn State, taking 24 transfers with him, including starting QB Rocco Becht. Oklahoma State enters with its own new voice in Eric Morris, who ditched an 11-2 American Conference finalist at North Texas for a Cowboys program that's lost 18 straight Big 12 games. Both sidelines will feature a coach still figuring out who his team is.
Morris brought his air raid with him, and redshirt sophomore Drew Mestemaker is the guy running it — a former top-100 recruit who OSU's staff clearly views as the centerpiece of the rebuild, backed by a transfer class stacked with 26 players who've played Power 4 snaps. Iowa State countered by importing Arkansas State's Jaylen Raynor, who threw for more than 8,600 yards and accounted for 67 total touchdowns in his final college season. Two new systems, two new quarterbacks, and neither has taken a real Big 12 snap yet.
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OKST Oklahoma State
ISU Iowa State
Iowa State still has the recent history in this series working for it — the Cyclones beat the Cowboys 20-13 in last year's finale and have won two straight in Ames, a streak they're trying to stretch to three. This is the 60th meeting between these two, and for a Cyclones team pegged for a 5.5-win season with the Big 12's lowest offensive and defensive grades alongside Kansas, a home date against a fellow rebuild is exactly the kind of game analysts have flagged as one Iowa State needs to win to get anywhere near bowl eligibility.
Oklahoma State Cowboys
Oct 16?@ Houston—
Oct 9?vs UCF—
Sep 25?@ West Virginia—
Sep 19?vs Murray State—
Sep 12?vs Oregon—
Sep 5?@ Tulsa—
Iowa State Cyclones
Oct 9?@ BYU—
Oct 2?vs West Virginia—
Sep 25?vs Utah—
Sep 19?vs Bowling Green—
Sep 12?@ Iowa—
Sep 5?vs Southeast Missouri State—
Recent form.
Oklahoma State has the more favorable outside buzz — ESPN's Bill Connelly tabbed the Cowboys as the most likely new-coach team to improve in 2026, and a bowl game isn't out of the question if Morris's offense clicks early. That's a notable gap in expectations for a program that's won a combined four games over the last two seasons, and it says more about how bad things had gotten than how good things are now. Jimmy Rogers, for his part, arrives at Iowa State off a 6-6 debut at Washington State and a national title run at FCS South Dakota State — a résumé that suggests he can build something, just maybe not by late October of year one.
Oklahoma State Cowboys
(0)
Fully healthy — no injuries on ESPN's report
Iowa State Cyclones
(0)
Fully healthy — no injuries on ESPN's report
Injury report — info via ESPN.
By the time this one kicks off on Friday, October 30, both rosters will have absorbed two months of Big 12 hits, and how each new staff has actually rebuilt its depth chart will matter more than any preseason projection. Whichever team looks more comfortable in its own system by then has the real edge here — everything else is still a guess.
