Oregon State Beavers at Boise State Broncos

Nov 14, 20265:00 PM CTUSA NetBoise, ID
By JR·2 min read

TLDR: Boise State has won every game it has played since September and just dropped 64 on a conference road trip. Oregon State has lost 2 straight by a combined 37 points and arrives at Albertsons Stadium needing to show the last 2 weeks were a blip and not the real team.

SAT 11/14, 5:00 PM CT · Week 11USA Net
Kickoff 48°

Boise State (8-1, 5-0) hosts Oregon State (5-4) having won 8 straight, most recently a 64-38 rout at Colorado State led by backup QB Max Cutforth and RB Dylan Riley. Oregon State has dropped 2 straight and just gave up its most rushing yards in nearly 8 years to Texas State, a bad sign against Riley and a run-first Boise offense. Boise is a double-digit home favorite with a high total and drizzle in the forecast, and the Broncos' QB situation is the one open question.

Oregon State Beavers
  • Offense hung 56, 66, 48 during October run
  • Beat common opponent Colorado State by 30 on the road
  • Run defense gutted by Texas State in 42-21 home loss
  • Lost 2 straight by a combined 37 points
  • Fell by 16 at Fresno, a team Boise beat
Boise State Broncos
  • Dylan Riley: 192 rushing, 88 receiving at Colorado State
  • 669 yards, TDs on first 4 drives last game
  • Unbeaten in conference, 8-game win streak

Start with the Broncos, because their last game raised a question. Backup quarterback Max Cutforth threw 4 touchdown passes and ran for another in the 64-38 rout at Colorado State. Dylan Riley put up 192 rushing yards, 88 receiving yards and 3 total touchdowns. Boise piled up 669 yards and scored touchdowns on its first 4 drives. Who takes the first snap on Saturday, November 14 is the thing to watch this week, though it's hard to see an answer that makes this offense easy to stop.

Oregon State's problem lives on the other side of the ball. Texas State ran through the Beavers in a 42-21 loss in Corvallis, with Torrance Burgess Jr. going for 196 yards and Davian Jackson scoring 3 times on the ground. Oregon State gave up its most rushing yards in nearly 8 years. Now it draws a back who just went for nearly 200 yards himself, and that one fact frames most of this game. The board has Boise as a double-digit home favorite.

Oregon State's offense isn't the issue. The Beavers scored 56 at Colorado State, 66 on San Diego State and 48 on Washington State during a 3-game run in October. Then the bottom fell out. They lost 38-22 at Fresno State, then lost by 21 at home to a Texas State team that had already pushed Boise State to the final whistle. Cornell Hatcher Jr. and Kourdey Glass found the end zone late in that one, but the game was gone by then.

11/08LvsTexas State21-42
11/01L@Fresno State22-38
10/17WvsWashington State48-30
10/10WvsSan Diego State66-14
10/03W@Colorado State56-26
11/07W@Colorado State64-38
11/01WvsTexas State46-45
10/24W@Washington State31-10
10/11W@Fresno State38-31
10/03WvsUtah State37-18

The common opponents make for a fun comparison. Both teams won at Colorado State by plenty. Oregon State beat Washington State by 18 at home, and Boise beat the Cougars by 21 on the road. The Fresno State and Texas State games are where they split: Boise won a 38-31 shootout in Fresno and survived Texas State 46-45 at home, and Oregon State lost both by multiple scores. Boise's defense hasn't been airtight either, giving up 45 and 38 in its last 2 games.

The forecast adds a wrinkle: 52 degrees, light drizzle and a 12 mph wind in Boise. That won't stop either offense, but a wet ball in November tends to push teams toward the run. That's what Boise does best, and it's what Oregon State just proved it can't stop.

For the Broncos, this is a chance to keep a perfect conference run going and stretch an 8-game streak. For the Beavers, at 5-4, it's a chance to turn a bad November around against the best team they'll see all month. If Oregon State can't win the line of scrimmage on early downs, this looks a lot like the Texas State tape.

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