Two Big Ten bluebloods show up to this one with brand-new head coaches, rebuilt rosters, and a whole lot to prove.
Bush’s Picks
PSUMICH
PSUMICH
OverUnder
Best BetMichigan
Michigan's the pick to win outright, mostly on the strength of continuity at the skill positions and a defense that projects as a real floor no matter how Underwood's second year under a new coordinator shakes out. Penn State is bringing a whole new engine - quarterback, system, 24 transfers from Ames - into a true road environment, and that's a lot of variables to iron out against a team that knows what it wants to be.
Penn State
+Rocco Becht brings 9,200+ career passing yards
+Matt Campbell has a 107-70 career record
+Projected heaviest offensive line in Big Ten
−Entirely new staff and system, first real test
−24 of 40 transfers came in from one place
−This is one of PSU's two toughest games all year
Michigan
+Underwood in year 2, more comfortable in system
+Jason Beck wants to unlock him as a runner
+Analysts project 8-9 wins, top-15 upside
−Offseason chaos: Moore fired and arrested
−Underwood's freshman season badly underwhelmed hype
−Entirely new coaching staff also unproven together
Rocco Becht takes his talents to Ann Arbor for a Friday night that means something. Penn State's transfer quarterback followed Matt Campbell from Iowa State, where he threw for over 9,200 yards and 64 touchdowns, and he's the centerpiece of a Nittany Lions offense being rebuilt from the ground up. On the other side, Bryce Underwood enters year 2 with a new voice in his ear: offensive coordinator Jason Beck, imported from Utah, wants to unleash him in the run game after a freshman season that underwhelmed given the hype.
This is one of the two toughest games on Penn State's entire schedule, and it's not close on the calendar - a road trip to the Big House with a first-year staff still finding its footing. Campbell brought 24 of his team's 40 transfers straight from Ames, which means most of this roster has played together for exactly one offseason. Michigan's operation is younger in a different way: Beck and the rest of Kyle Whittingham's staff are installing a scheme from scratch, betting that more spread concepts finally get the most out of Underwood's arm and legs.
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PSU Penn State
MICH Michigan
Neither program is walking in with a finished product, which is exactly what makes this one interesting instead of a formality. Analysts have penciled Michigan in around 8 or 9 wins and floated Penn State as a sleeper capable of overachieving - but both projections lean heavily on stuff that hasn't been tested yet, like whether a rookie staff can win a hostile December-weather environment in October.
Penn State Nittany Lions
Oct 9?vs USC—
Oct 2?@ Northwestern—
Sep 25?vs Wisconsin—
Sep 19?vs Buffalo—
Sep 12?@ Temple—
Sep 5?vs Marshall—
Michigan Wolverines
Oct 2?@ Minnesota—
Sep 25?vs Iowa—
Sep 19?vs UTEP—
Sep 12?vs Oklahoma—
Sep 5?vs Western Michigan—
Recent form.
The bigger story in Ann Arbor all offseason has had nothing to do with X's and O's. Sherrone Moore was fired and later arrested, and Whittingham was pulled out of retirement less than a year after stepping away from Utah to clean it up. Penn State's own offseason wasn't drama-free either - James Franklin's exit was messy enough that it got the 'it all turned so bad so fast' treatment before Campbell was hired away from Iowa State to steady the ship. Both fan bases are still sizing up men they didn't expect to be introducing themselves to a year ago.
Penn State Nittany Lions
(0)
Fully healthy — no injuries on ESPN's report
Michigan Wolverines
(0)
Fully healthy — no injuries on ESPN's report
Injury report — info via ESPN.
Strip away the coaching-search subplots and this still reads like a measuring-stick game for both programs. Penn State gets to find out fast whether Becht and that oversized offensive line - the heaviest starting five in the Big Ten on paper - can hang on the road against a defense and a Jordan Marshall-led run game that's supposed to be Michigan's floor no matter how the QB situation shakes out. Whoever looks more finished by Friday night probably has the better half of their season ahead of them.
