TLDR: Miami is 5-0, ranked No. 3, and just survived Florida State in double overtime. Pitt shows up at Hard Rock Stadium on Saturday, October 24 after losing 2 straight, and nobody can say for sure who its quarterback will be.
Unbeaten No. 3 Miami hosts a Pitt team that has lost 2 straight. Pitt is also down to backup quarterbacks after Mason Heintschel's season-ending ACL tear, and a true freshman threw 2 interceptions in his first start at Boston College. Miami is coming off a draining double-overtime win over Florida State and is missing several running backs and tight ends. The game turns on whether Pitt's quarterback can protect the ball against a Mensah-led offense, and the board has Miami as a 3-touchdown-plus favorite.
+Mensah-to-Toney connection producing in big spots
+Hung 41 on Clemson on the road
+5-0 and No. 3 in the AP poll
−Gave up 35 to Florida State in double OT
−RB Brown, WR Moore out for season
−Both tight ends Gilbert and Ruskavich listed out
The whole game starts at quarterback, and only one side has a settled answer. Mason Heintschel was having a strong sophomore season for Pitt, with 14 touchdown passes and 1 interception. Then he went down in the third quarter of the 35-33 win at Virginia Tech, and ESPN reported the next day that he tore his ACL and is done for the year. The injury feed still lists him as questionable with a leg injury. Don't count on it. Fifth-year backup Holden Geriner finished that Virginia Tech game 8-of-12 with a touchdown and started the 21-17 home loss to North Carolina. True freshman Corey Dailey got the start at Boston College and went 11-of-25 for 193 yards, 1 touchdown and 2 interceptions in a 27-21 loss. Miami has Darian Mensah. That gap is the matchup.
The Boston College loss was more than a quarterback problem. Local coverage put it on penalties and a pass defense that couldn't hold up, and BC got its first ACC win of the season out of it. That's a rough thing to carry into a road trip against a Miami offense that put 41 on Clemson in Death Valley and 43 on Florida State. Miami has its own holes. Running back C. Brown and receiver J. Moore are both out for the season, and tight ends L. Gilbert and O. Ruskavich are both listed out. The board treats all of that as background noise. Miami is a 3-touchdown-plus favorite.
What makes this more than a formality is the week Miami just had. The Florida State game was a rivalry game that went to double overtime and ended with a controversial finish. The offense had to come up big late just to stay unbeaten. Mensah found Malachi Toney for a 14-yard touchdown, the sophomore's 7th score of the season. A 43-35 game is a lot of points to give up to anyone. A week later, unranked Pitt comes to town without the same kind of buzz.
Look past the 2-game skid and Pitt is no pushover. The Panthers lost to North Carolina by 4 and to Boston College by 6, both one-score games, and they won a shootout in Blacksburg. The defense held Syracuse to 13. Pitt has stayed close in its conference games. The problem is that it now plays them without its best player. Miami beat Clemson by 28 on the road and blew out Florida A&M and Central Michigan. Wake Forest and Florida State were the only teams to keep it within 2 scores.
The weather is a week out, but worth keeping an eye on. The current forecast for Miami Gardens calls for 81 degrees, a 43% chance of thunderstorms and wind around 19 mph. If that holds, a young quarterback throwing into the wind on the road gets even harder. Miami's thinned-out backfield would also have to carry more in a game that may not be pretty. For Pitt, the question is simple: can whoever starts at quarterback avoid the turnovers that sank them at Chestnut Hill? If not, Miami takes care of this one early.
Pittsburgh vs. Miami: Polymarket Odds & Prediction (Oct. 24) — Pitt's Quarterback Carousel Rolls Into Hard Rock Against No. 3 Miami · Barstool Bush
Bucknell59-0
Florida A&M77-7