Purdue Boilermakers at Illinois Fighting Illini

Oct 3, 20263:15 PM CTChampaign, IL
By JR·2 min read
Purdue BoilermakersPUR(1-3)
Illinois Fighting IlliniILL(2-2)
3:15 PM

TLDR: Illinois gained 462 yards at Ohio Stadium and still lost by 23, and Bret Bielema spent the week calling his defense unacceptable. Next up is Purdue in Champaign on Saturday, October 3. That's a good chance to show the fix is real, or proof that it isn't.

Week 5 · SAT OCT 3, 3:15 PM CT
(1-3)
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Kickoff69°10 mph

Illinois hosts Purdue after a 42-19 loss at Ohio State. The Illini offense piled up 462 yards in that game, but the defense forced no turnovers, recorded no sacks and gave up 518 yards. The game comes down to whether Bielema's defensive fixes hold up against a Purdue team still rebuilding under 2nd-year coach Barry Odom. The board has Illinois as a clear home favorite, but the picks stay closed until the market opens them.

Purdue Boilermakers
  • Faces a defense Bielema called unacceptable
  • Illinois allowed 518 yards and forced 0 turnovers at OSU
  • Slow start in year 2 of Odom's rebuild
  • No receiver like Smith to exploit coverage busts
Illinois Fighting Illini
  • Offense piled up 462 yards against Ohio State
  • Back home at Gies after the Columbus trip
  • 0 sacks, 1 TFL, 0 takeaways vs Ohio State
  • Already lost a home game to Duke, 31-27

This is a Big Ten game in the Illinois-Purdue series, and both teams need what it offers. Bielema is in his 6th year in Champaign and has had a rougher September than he'd like. His team lost 31-27 to Duke at Gies Memorial Stadium and then went to Columbus and lost 42-19 to Ohio State. Barry Odom is in his 2nd year at Purdue and is still building. The Boilermakers have had a slow start, and a win on the road at Illinois would be the best thing on their résumé so far.

The Ohio State game is the main thing to study for this one, and it tells 2 different stories. The Illinois offense wasn't the problem. It gained 462 yards against one of the best defenses in the country and just didn't turn enough of them into points. The defense gave up 518 yards and 6 touchdowns. Jeremiah Smith caught 12 passes for 217 yards and 4 scores, and Julian Sayin threw for 367. Illinois had 1 tackle for loss, 0 sacks and forced 0 turnovers. Illinois is the clear home favorite, and that price assumes the Ohio State game was about Ohio State.

Bielema didn't treat it that way. He listed specific problems: nobody accounted for Smith on key snaps, rushers lost contain and let the quarterback scramble, the pass rush got no pressure, and on one play Illinois had only 9 defenders on the field. He also worried that his defense might be tipping its calls before the snap. Most of those are fixable in a week of practice. Busted communication and a pass rush that can't get home are harder to fix, and Purdue's staff will study that film too.

09/26Lvs#3 Notre Dame10-49
09/20L@#23 UCLA38-52
09/12LvsWake Forest36-38
09/04WvsIndiana State44-19
09/26L@#5 Ohio State19-42
09/19WvsSouthern Illinois48-10
09/12LvsDuke27-31
09/04WvsUAB42-23

The Purdue side is harder to read. Odom took over a program that needed a full rebuild, and the Boilermakers' early results show it is still underway. They've played Wake Forest at Ross-Ade Stadium this month and have had more bad days than good ones. Purdue has no receiver who can do what Smith did last week. The Boilermakers only need an offense that can keep drives alive and push Illinois into long fields on a defense still sorting out its communication.

The weather could matter. The forecast 6 days out calls for 74 degrees, a light drizzle with a 32% chance of rain, and wind around 11 mph at Gies. That won't shut down either passing game, but a wet ball and some wind can turn a few deep shots into punts. The forecast will change several times before Saturday.

Neither team plays again before this, so what you see now is what shows up on October 3. For Illinois, the question is whether an offense that can move the ball on anyone gets any help from a defense that got none in Columbus. For Purdue, it's whether year 2 under Odom is far enough along to take advantage of that. If the Illini defense looks like it did against Ohio State, Purdue can keep this close. If Bielema's fixes work, Illinois should handle it.

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Purdue Boilermakers at Illinois Fighting Illini — Illinois Comes Home From Columbus to Face Odom's Purdue | Polymarket Odds · Barstool Bush