Purdue was better than 3-6 a month ago. As of now it is 2-3 in its last 5: it won at Illinois 24-17 and beat Minnesota 41-13 at home, then lost to Washington, at Penn State and to Maryland. The Minnesota result stands out because the Gophers beat Iowa 13-10. It also shows how little these comparisons tell you. Iowa won 41-24 at Washington, and Washington beat Purdue 38-26 at Purdue.
Iowa does have a weak spot, and it's the offense when an opponent takes the run away. The 31-14 home loss to Ohio State and the 13-10 loss at Minnesota both had the Hawkeyes stuck in the teens or lower. If Purdue's front can keep Iowa under 150 or so on the ground and make the passing game win it, this is a different game. So far nobody but the Buckeyes and Gophers has managed that.
The early forecast for Iowa City is 38 degrees, clear and almost no wind. Late-season Big Ten games at Kinnick don't usually get much nicer than that, but it's 5 days out and could change. Clear weather won't cover up a red-zone problem, though. If Purdue is kicking field goals again, Iowa's defense and Kinnick will make it pay. Purdue needs touchdowns, and it needs to protect the quarterback better than it did on that last snap against Maryland.
