Rutgers Scarlet Knights at Northwestern Wildcats

Oct 24, 202611:00 AM CTPeacockEvanston, IL
By JR·2 min read

TLDR: Northwestern is ranked and winning ugly. Rutgers can't stop anybody but just put 37 on Maryland on the road. Something gives at Ryan Field on Saturday, October 24.

SAT 10/24, 11:00 AM CT · Week 8Peacock
Kickoff 64°

No. 25 Northwestern hosts Rutgers after a 24-21 escape at Michigan State, with a defense that has mostly kept opponents in single digits or the teens. Rutgers has an offense that just scored 37 at Maryland behind Dylan Lonergan, who played despite an injury listing that still has him out, but its defense allowed 47 to Indiana, the one opponent both teams have faced. The game comes down to whether Northwestern's defense, missing corner J. Fussell, can contain Lonergan and KJ Duff.

Rutgers Scarlet Knights
  • Lonergan threw for 291 and 3 TDs at Maryland
  • Thevenin ran for 109, so the offense has balance
  • Duff caught 9 for 113 and 2 scores
  • Allowed 28+ in 4 of last 5
  • Corners Sanders and Levy both out
  • Indiana beat them 47-15 at home
Northwestern Wildcats
  • Defense held 4 of last 5 opponents to 21 or fewer
  • Won its last 2 home games by 21 and 31
  • Chiles led the game-winning drive at Michigan State
  • Needed a blocked kick to survive Michigan State
  • CB Fussell out, no timetable
  • TE McGlinchey out, no timetable

Start with the quarterbacks, because the injury report is wrong about one of them. The feed still lists Rutgers' Dylan Lonergan as out with a head injury and no timetable, a note dated after the Indiana loss. He started at Maryland anyway and went 23-of-35 for 291 yards, 3 touchdowns and 1 interception in the 37-30 win. On the other side is Aidan Chiles, who just led Northwestern's game-winning drive against Michigan State, the school he used to play for, in a 24-21 escape.

Lonergan had help in College Park. Clay Thevenin ran 17 times for 109 yards and a score, and KJ Duff caught 9 balls for 113 yards and 2 touchdowns. Rutgers' problem is the other side of the ball. The Scarlet Knights gave up 28 to Boston College, 42 to USC and 47 to Indiana, and they have 2 corners on the injury list in K. Sanders and K. Levy, both out. That is not a secondary you want to bring into a road game against a ranked team. The board for this one is still blank, so there's no number to argue with yet.

Northwestern did not look like a top-25 team for most of Saturday in East Lansing. The Daily Northwestern called its first game against former coach Pat Fitzgerald a rock fight, and the Wildcats needed a blocked go-ahead kick by Brendan Flakes, then a 65-second drive and a 34-yard Jackson Kleather field goal with 2 seconds left. Escapes still count. Before that, David Braun's team handled Penn State 34-13 and Ball State 45-14 at home.

10/17W@Maryland37-30
10/04Lvs6Indiana15-47
09/25WvsHoward58-7
09/19Lvs16USC35-42
09/11L@Boston College21-28
10/17W@Michigan State24-21
10/10WvsBall State45-14
10/03WvsPenn State34-13
09/26L@6Indiana23-29
09/19WvsColorado41-7

The common opponent is the best measuring stick on the page. Indiana beat Northwestern 29-23 in Bloomington and beat Rutgers 47-15 in Piscataway. One of those is a road loss to a good team. The other is getting run out of your own building. Northwestern has also given up 7, 13, 14 and 21 in its other 4 games in this stretch, while Rutgers has allowed 28 or more in 4 of its last 5.

Northwestern has its own absences: tight end T. McGlinchey and corner J. Fussell are both out with no timetable. Losing Fussell matters more this week than it would have a month ago, with Lonergan and Duff coming off the best passing day Rutgers has had in this window. Early forecast for Evanston is 64 degrees, cloudy, 11 mph wind and no rain. That's fine football weather and gives neither offense an excuse.

The matchup is simple. Northwestern has won 3 straight by playing defense and getting the late stop. Rutgers has a quarterback who can trade points with anyone and a defense that usually has to. If Chiles and the Wildcats force Lonergan to drive the length of the field every time, the ranked team handles its business at home. If Duff gets loose against a secondary already down a corner, this turns into the kind of game Rutgers has been playing all season.

Rutgers vs. Northwestern: Polymarket Odds & Prediction (Oct. 24) — Lonergan and Rutgers Bring Their Shootout Habit to Ranked Northwestern · Barstool Bush