Sam Houston Bearkats at Texas Tech Red Raiders

Sep 26, 202611:00 AM CTLubbock, TX
By JR·2 min read

TLDR: Texas Tech has climbed to No. 11 in the country off a 3-0 start; Sam Houston is walking into Lubbock as a Conference USA team trying to figure out what it actually is.

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Texas Tech enters Saturday at No. 11 in the country off a 3-0 start that includes a win over then-No. 22 Houston, while Sam Houston brings a 1-2 record padded by a lopsided win over an FCS opponent. DraftKings has the Red Raiders favored by 37.5 points, reflecting a significant gap in level between a Big 12 contender and a Conference USA team still finding its footing.

Sam Houston
  • Blew out Nicholls 59-0 to close out non-conference slate
  • Longo's offense found rhythm in that win
  • Lost to Troy and Tulsa by a combined 9 points
  • Jumps from Conference USA slate into a ranked Big 12 offense
Texas Tech
  • 3-0 start includes a win over then-No. 22 Houston
  • Hammond has thrown a TD in every game so far
  • Needed a 4th-quarter push to beat Houston by 2
  • First look at a lesser opponent could invite a flat effort

Will Hammond has been the story of Texas Tech's start. The junior has thrown for touchdowns in each of the Red Raiders' first three games, including a 257-yard, 2-touchdown outing in the 28-26 win over then-No. 22 Houston, and he heads into Saturday's game against Sam Houston as the quarterback of a team that just climbed to No. 11 in the AP poll.

Sam Houston's week couldn't look more different. The Bearkats dropped their first two games of the season to Troy and Tulsa by a combined 9 points before blowing out Nicholls 59-0, a result that says more about the level of that opponent than it does about where Phil Longo's group actually stands heading into a trip to the Big 12.

The gap between the two programs shows up everywhere in this one, from the ranking to the roster depth to the -37.5 number DraftKings has posted. Texas Tech isn't just favored, it's favored like a team that expects to be in the College Football Playoff conversation by December.

09/19WvsNicholls59-0
09/12LvsTulsa17-23
09/05L@Troy21-24
11/22L@Middle Tennessee17-31
09/19Wvs#25 Houston28-26
09/12W@Oregon State35-24
09/05WvsAbilene Christian33-10
01/01Lvs#20 Oregon0-23
12/06Wvs#9 BYU34-7

What's notable about Texas Tech's start is how it's come in different flavors: a lopsided win over an FCS opponent, a comfortable road win at Oregon State, and then a grind-it-out finish against a ranked Houston team that had the Red Raiders sweating in the fourth quarter. That range is a good sign for a team that will see a lot of different styles the rest of the year. Sam Houston, by contrast, has one data point worth much of anything from these first three weeks, and it came against an FCS team.

Fully healthy — no injuries to report
  • QuestionableT. Carter Jr. (TE)Carter Jr. is battling with a foot injury, and it is uncertain if he will play against Sam Houston on Saturday.09/21
  • QuestionableT. White (LB)White is battling with a knee injury, and it is unclear if he will play against the Houston on Saturday, September 19th.09/13
  • OutA. Boyd (CB)Boyd is nursing with an undisclosed injury, and he will be out of the lineup against Houston on Friday.09/16

Weather shouldn't be a factor Saturday. Lubbock is forecast for 75 degrees and cloudy skies with only a 21% chance of rain, so this is about as clean a setup as either team could ask for. The bigger variable is simply whether Texas Tech treats an outmatched Conference USA opponent as a tune-up or uses it to keep building toward the ranked matchups still on the schedule.

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Sam Houston Bearkats at Texas Tech Red Raiders — No. 11 Texas Tech Faces Reeling Sam Houston Bearkats | Polymarket Odds · Barstool Bush