Boise State closes out its home slate against a fellow Pac-12 newcomer, and neither program has fully figured out who it is yet in a brand new league.
Bush’s Picks
SDSUBOIS
SDSUBOIS
OverUnder
Best BetBoise State
Boise's ball-control run game gives it a floor that San Diego State's rebuilt secondary has to prove it can handle before anyone should trust the road side outright. The Aztecs have more proven pass-catching talent, but banking on a defense that replaced nearly its entire two-deep to hold up on the road is asking a lot. Take the Broncos at home behind Riley and Gaines.
San Diego State
+Four best receivers return, led by Jordan Napier
+Veteran QB Denegal has starting experience
+Added transfer QB Stone Saunders for depth
−Defense must replace nearly its entire secondary
−Lost defensive coordinator Rob Aurich to Nebraska
−Denegal was banged up and inconsistent late last year
Boise State
+Riley/Gaines backfield combined for ~2,000 yards, 18 TDs
+Went 6-0 when rushing for 170-plus yards
+Home finale on blue turf, third straight MWC title in 2025
−Lost 8 players to NFL opportunities this offseason
−Top two receivers gone, passing game largely unproven
−Madsen's completion rate dropped to 58% last season
Two teams still learning their new conference meet on the blue turf, and the quarterback question marks are the real headline. Jayden Denegal, the Michigan transfer running San Diego State's offense, got banged up late last season and wasn't quite himself down the stretch — he needs a cleaner, more consistent finish this time. Across the field, Boise's Maddux Madsen is trying to rediscover the accuracy that slipped to 58% completions a year ago after sitting north of 62% the two seasons before that. Neither guy is walking in with total confidence behind him, and how each settles in will shape this whole night.
Both defenses and receiving corps are dealing with serious turnover, too. San Diego State's secondary was a strength last year and now has to replace nearly everyone who mattered, with new coordinator Demetrius Sumler promoted in-house after Rob Aurich left for Nebraska. Boise, meanwhile, lost its top two receivers to eligibility and watched Chris Marshall bolt for Arkansas, leaving Madsen with a wide receiver room that's largely a mystery. Eight Broncos also left early for the NFL this offseason, which tells you how much roster churn both sidelines are managing heading into year one of Pac-12 play.
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SDSU San Diego State
BOIS Boise State
If there's a strength either team can lean on with confidence, it's San Diego State's returning skill talent on offense and Boise's ground game. The Aztecs bring back their four best receivers, including Jordan Napier, Jacob Bostick and Donovan Brown, giving Denegal weapons even if his line and defense are shakier. Boise counters with Dylan Riley and Sire Gaines, a backfield that combined for nearly 2,000 yards and 18 touchdowns last season — the Broncos went 6-0 when they ran for 170-plus yards. That's the identity Boise will try to lean on late in the year.
San Diego State Aztecs
Nov 14?vs Utah State—
Oct 31?vs Washington State—
Oct 17?vs Fresno State—
Oct 10?@ Oregon State—
Oct 3?vs Texas State—
Sep 25?@ Toledo—
Sep 19?vs James Madison—
Sep 12?@ UCLA—
Sep 5?vs Portland State—
Boise State Broncos
Nov 14?vs Oregon State—
Nov 7?@ Colorado State—
Oct 31?vs Texas State—
Oct 10?@ Fresno State—
Oct 3?vs Utah State—
Sep 25?@ Western Michigan—
Sep 19?vs South Dakota—
Sep 12?vs Memphis—
Sep 5?@ Oregon—
Recent form.
This one also comes loaded with symbolism: it's Boise's home finale, and the Broncos are coming off a third straight Mountain West title before jumping into a rebuilt Pac-12 alongside San Diego State, Fresno State and Colorado State. Beating a fellow newcomer on Senior Day carries weight for a program trying to prove it belongs at this level right away, while San Diego State is looking to show its own move up wasn't a step down in competitiveness.
San Diego State Aztecs
(0)
Fully healthy — no injuries on ESPN's report
Boise State Broncos
(0)
Fully healthy — no injuries on ESPN's report
Injury report — info via ESPN.
Both coaching staffs — Spencer Danielson in Boise, Sean Lewis in his third year at San Diego State — are selling continuity while quietly patching real holes on both sides of the ball. Whichever team's newcomers settle in fastest, whether that's Sumler's rebuilt secondary or Madsen's unproven receivers, is probably going to swing this one late in the season.
