San Diego State Aztecs at Oregon State Beavers

Oct 10, 20265:00 PM CTUSA NetCorvallis, OR
By JR·2 min read

TLDR: Oregon State hasn't punted in a week and has put up 50 twice in its last 3 games. San Diego State comes to Reser Stadium on Saturday, October 10, having topped 16 points once all season, and with its top 2 running backs listed questionable.

Week 6 · 10/10, 5:00 PM CTUSA Net
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Oregon State hosts San Diego State in Corvallis on a 3-game winning streak, coming off a 651-yard, no-punt win at Colorado State led by Braden Atkinson. San Diego State is 1-3, has scored 16 or fewer in all 3 losses, and has its top 2 running backs questionable and both tight ends out. The game hinges on whether a depleted Aztecs offense can keep up with an Oregon State attack that has scored at will against lesser defenses, while the Beavers' defense has been leaky against better opponents.

San Diego State Aztecs
  • Beat Portland State 53-20, the offense can score against weak defenses
  • Oregon State's defense gave up 26 even in a 30-point win
  • Scored 10, 13 and 16 in its 3 losses
  • Denegal sacked and pick-sixed at Toledo
  • Sutton and Kinnard both questionable after Toledo
Oregon State Beavers
  • Atkinson threw for 413 yards and 5 TDs at Colorado State
  • 651 yards and no punts last time out
  • Only 1 player on the injury report, RB K. Glass

The football story starts at quarterback. Braden Atkinson just threw for 413 yards and 5 touchdowns at Colorado State. Jesse Legree caught 3 of them, and the Beavers put up 651 yards and never punted in a 56-26 Pac-12 opener. Jayden Denegal's last start went the other way. Toledo sacked him for a 15-yard loss before the half, and Isaac Zay returned one of his passes 67 yards for a touchdown that made it 34-3. Backup Draiden Trudeau led SDSU's only touchdown drive, late and against reserves.

Toledo also cost San Diego State its backfield. Lucky Sutton (ankle) and Javion Kinnard (knee) both got hurt in that 41-16 loss, and both carry questionable tags on this report. That leaves the Aztecs thin at the one spot that could take some pressure off Denegal. The tight end room is short too, with P. Guiltinan and J. Ellis both listed out, and receiver A. Doe is out as well. Oregon State's report has 1 name on it: running back K. Glass, who missed the Colorado State game and didn't slow the offense down at all.

There's no board on this one yet, so it comes down to football. Oregon State has won 3 straight for the first time since 2023, beating Montana, UTEP and Colorado State by a combined 141-50. That's not a murderers' row, but the offense keeps getting better. San Diego State is 1-3, and its 3 losses came to UCLA, James Madison and Toledo by an average of more than 18 points.

10/04WvsTexas State31-29
09/26L@Toledo16-41
09/20LvsJames Madison13-26
09/12L@#21 UCLA10-28
09/06WvsPortland State53-20
10/03W@Colorado State56-26
09/27W@UTEP33-7
09/20WvsMontana52-17
09/12Lvs#11 Texas Tech24-35
09/05L@#22 Houston20-33

Look at the Aztecs' scoring: 10 at UCLA, 13 against James Madison at home, 16 at Toledo. Their only big day was 53 against FCS Portland State. An offense that can't run the ball, missing its tight ends and protecting a quarterback who has been sacked and picked off has a hard time keeping pace with a team that just went 34 first downs without a punt. If SDSU is going to hang around, the defense has to make Atkinson drive the length of the field and the Aztecs have to keep their own mistakes off the scoreboard. They didn't do either at Toledo.

Oregon State isn't spotless. The Beavers gave up 33 at Houston and 35 at home to Texas Tech, and Colorado State still put up 26 on them while they were scoring 56. Their 2 losses came against the best teams they've played. Weather won't matter much: the early forecast for Corvallis is 60 degrees and partly cloudy with about a 12 mph wind. Saturday mostly asks whether San Diego State can find any offense, against a home team that currently can't stop scoring.

San Diego State Aztecs at Oregon State Beavers — Oregon State's Rolling Offense Hosts Short-Handed San Diego State in Corvallis | Polymarket Odds · Barstool Bush