San Diego State's first season in a new conference comes with an old-school test: a Friday night trip to Toledo, a program that hasn't had a losing season since 2009.
Bush’s Picks
SDSUTOL
SDSUTOL
OverUnder
Best BetToledo
Toledo's the trendier side here even as a first-year program under Mike Jacobs — this is a program that hasn't posted a losing season since 2009, and transfer additions up front like Andrew Zock give it a puncher's chance against an Aztecs defense that lost almost every starter off last year's group. San Diego State still has the more proven pieces in Jayden Denegal and a loaded receiver room, but doing it on the road in a brand-new conference, against a hungry Rockets crowd, is no gimme. Lean Toledo to spring the mild early-season surprise at home.
San Diego State
+Nearly entire skill-position group returns off 9-win year
+Denegal, Sutton, Washington and top-4 WRs all back
+Won 9 games last season, real momentum
−Defense loses almost every starter, new coordinator
−First road trip as a first-year Pac-12 program
−Analysts flagged this as a marked non-conference trap game
Toledo
+No losing season since 2009, proven program culture
+Transfer talent infusion: DPOY-caliber Zock, 1,000-yard back Miller
+Home crowd for a new coach's early test
−21 new starters, brand-new staff installing systems
−QB John Alan Richter has barely 700 career passing yards
−O-line thin after departures to UConn, past penalty issues
This one's a genuine measuring-stick game buried in the non-conference slate. San Diego State returns basically its entire skill-position group from a 9-win season — QB Jayden Denegal, a backfield tandem in Lucky Sutton and Christian Washington that combined for almost 1,900 yards and 14 touchdowns, and its top 4 receivers led by Jordan Napier. Toledo counters with a total unknown under center in John Alan Richter, who's thrown for barely 700 career yards, working behind a first-year staff that's never called a game together in Rockets uniforms.
New head coach Mike Jacobs didn't come to Toledo empty-handed, though. He brought Mercer transfers RB CJ Miller, who ran for nearly 1,000 yards and 14 touchdowns in the SoCon, and DE Andrew Zock, an FCS Defensive Player of the Year with 18.5 career sacks who's now tasked with getting after an Aztecs offensive line. The flip side of Toledo's roster overhaul — 21 new starters by some counts — is a thin, patched-together line up front after losing pieces to UConn, plus a team that racked up 111 penalties last season under the old regime.
Show fees
11:00 PM CT
Spread
ML
Total
SDSU San Diego State
TOL Toledo
San Diego State isn't immune to its own rebuild, either. The Aztecs' defense loses almost every meaningful piece from last year's group, with new coordinator Demetrius Sumler now in charge of a unit that has to be largely reconstructed on the fly — all while adjusting to life in the Pac-12 for the first time after 27 years in the Mountain West. Analysts flagged this exact trip to Ohio as one of the toughest non-conference tests on San Diego State's 2026 schedule, sandwiched between a UCLA game and a home date with James Madison.
San Diego State Aztecs
Sep 19?vs James Madison—
Sep 12?@ UCLA—
Sep 5?vs Portland State—
Toledo Rockets
Sep 19?vs Temple—
Sep 12?vs Central Connecticut—
Sep 4?@ Michigan State—
Recent form.
Toledo's preseason buzz has been real — one national outlet projected the Rockets at 8-4 and squarely in the mix atop a MAC race that also includes Miami (Ohio), Western Michigan and Central Michigan. But projecting a debut coaching staff, an unproven quarterback and a shaky offensive line to beat a team with this much offensive continuity is still a leap of faith this early in the year.
For San Diego State, the stakes are just as real. The Aztecs are living with a modest win-total number as they try to prove last year's 9-win breakthrough wasn't a fluke, and stumbling on the road against a MAC team in Week 4 would be a rough way to open the Pac-12 era's credibility test. Toledo, on the other hand, is just trying to keep a program-defining streak alive under brand-new management.
