Air Force is trying to shake off back-to-back losing seasons, and a gutted San José State roster looks like exactly the kind of team that could help them do it.
Bush’s Picks
SJSUAF
SJSUAF
OverUnder
Best BetAir Force
Air Force's dual-threat quarterback and a run game that's been one of the best in the country give the Falcons a real talent edge here. San José State is replacing almost its entire two-deep and debuting a new defensive coordinator, which is a rough combination against a team that just beat them by 10. Back Air Force to win outright.
San José State
+New DC Filimoeatu brings a fresh defensive approach
+Niumatalolo now has program continuity in year 3
−Lost bulk of the two-deep, thin portal haul
−Went 3-9 in 2025, lost last meeting 26-16
−Opens season at USC with zero ramp-up time
Air Force
+Szarka led MWC in rushing TDs before injury
+Run game consistently among the nation's best
+Won last meeting with SJSU 26-16
−Defense allowed 50%+ third-down conversions in 2025
−Two straight losing seasons under Calhoun
−Szarka's wrist health this far out is unproven
This one's a Mountain West measuring-stick game more than a marquee matchup. Air Force enters Saturday, November 14 still hunting a return to form under Troy Calhoun, and a lot of that hope rides on quarterback Liam Szarka. Before a wrist injury ended his 2025 season early, Szarka was one of the most dangerous dual-threat quarterbacks in the conference — he led the Mountain West in rushing touchdowns and racked up 1,294 passing yards and 922 rushing yards in just 10 games.
San José State, meanwhile, is starting almost from scratch. Ken Niumatalolo is in year 3 in San José, but the roster in front of him barely resembles last year's 3-9 team — the Spartans lost the bulk of their two-deep and didn't add much through the portal to replace it. New defensive coordinator Bojay Filimoeatu inherits a unit that couldn't get off the field a year ago, and he's rebuilding it with almost no returning experience.
Show fees
6:00 PM CT
Spread
ML
Total
SJSU San José State
AF Air Force
The last time these two teams met, Szarka accounted for 3 touchdowns and Air Force beat San José State 26-16. That result lines up with how these programs currently stack up — Air Force with an established identity and a game-breaking quarterback, San José State trying to figure out who it even is on defense.
San José State Spartans
Nov 6?vs Northern Illinois—
Oct 30?vs New Mexico—
Oct 17?@ UTEP—
Oct 9?vs Wyoming—
Oct 3?@ Hawai'i—
Sep 19?vs Fresno State—
Sep 11?vs Cal Poly—
Sep 4?@ Eastern Michigan—
Aug 29?@ USC—
Air Force Falcons
Nov 7?@ Army—
Oct 31?vs UConn—
Oct 23?@ Wyoming—
Oct 17?vs UNLV—
Oct 10?@ Northern Illinois—
Oct 3?vs Navy—
Sep 25?@ Nevada—
Sep 12?vs North Dakota State—
Sep 5?vs Duquesne—
Recent form.
The bigger question for Air Force isn't the offense, it's whether the defense can hold up. Opponents converted more than half their third-down chances against the Falcons in 2025, one of the worst marks in the country, and that habit turned winnable games into late collapses. Against a San José State offense still finding its footing under a new-look supporting cast, that shouldn't be as costly — but it's the same flaw that's kept Calhoun below .500 the last two years.
San José State Spartans
(0)
Fully healthy — no injuries on ESPN's report
Air Force Falcons
(0)
Fully healthy — no injuries on ESPN's report
Injury report — info via ESPN.
San José State also opens its season on the road at USC in Week 0, a brutal early test for a team with this much roster turnover, and there's no telling yet how battered or built-up that group will look by the time it gets to Colorado Springs in mid-November. Air Force, by contrast, is the more stable program walking into this one, with a coach who's rarely had a losing stretch this long and a quarterback capable of taking over a game by himself if his wrist cooperates.
