The Fresno State game is San José State's problem. The Spartans managed only 10 points at home in a 26-10 loss in the 'Battle for the Valley.' Before that they'd beaten Eastern Michigan 27-21 on the road and Cal Poly 30-20, and they scored 26 in the opener at USC. The offense can move the ball, but it vanished in its first real conference-level test.
Hawai'i's start has been just as uneven. The Rainbow Warriors opened by scoring 27 against Stanford and still lost by 10. Then they scored just 6 in a 21-6 loss to UNLV, their Mountain West opener, before beating New Mexico State 29-19. That makes them 1-2 before the Wyoming trip. This is Chang's 5th season in charge, and he's had an offense that can put up points in some games and stall completely in others.
The forecast shouldn't be an excuse for either side. It's mostly sunny and 78 in Honolulu, with a 12% chance of rain and wind at 4 mph. That's about as neutral as outdoor football gets. The game will come down to which offense shows up: the San José State that scored 30 on Cal Poly or the one that managed 10 against Fresno, and the Hawai'i that scored 27 on Stanford or the one that got held to 6 by UNLV.
There's also a conference angle. San José State is still 0-0 in league play, and the Spartans host Wyoming the following week, so a road win here would give them a real start in the Mountain West. Hawai'i already has a conference loss to UNLV and can't afford another one at home. It's a late kickoff on the islands, and both teams have more to prove than to protect.