The Spartans have looked like 2 different teams depending on the venue. At home they lost to Fresno State 26-10 and to Wyoming 16-13. On the road they went to Hawai'i and won 20-16, then flew to El Paso and handled UTEP 24-11. The defense has held 4 straight opponents to 26 or fewer, and that defense is the reason 4-3 feels sturdier than it reads.
Cal Poly30-20
Montana State7-20Nevada is in a much rougher spot. The Wolf Pack are 2-4 and 1-4 in their last 5, and the home losses hurt most: a 20-7 loss to FCS Montana State, then a 36-33 shootout loss to Air Force. Their lone recent win was a 30-13 result at UTEP, which is the same field San José State just won on, by a similar score. Then they went to Fargo and lost 31-17 to a North Dakota State team that improved to 6-1 with the win. Since that game was the Bison's first season in the league, it counts in the Mountain West standings, and it dropped Nevada to 1-2.
Nevada does have some things going for it. Kicker Joe McFadden hadn't missed a field goal as of mid-October, the Pack were converting 94.7% of their red-zone trips, and linebacker EJ Smith was 2nd in the country at 11.8 tackles per game. That adds up to a team that finishes the drives it gets and has a defender who will be around every run San José State tries. The problem is getting the drives at all. Nevada has given up 27, 36 and 31 points in 3 of its last 5.
The forecast says partly cloudy and 65 in Reno with almost no wind, so weather won't be an excuse for either side. San José State is 2-1 in conference and still in the middle of the race. Nevada needs this one just to keep its season from sliding away, and it would be the Wolf Pack's first home win in a while. The board opens when it opens. Until then the questions are simple: can Turner and the Nevada run game keep Weaver on the sideline, and can the Spartans' road form survive a thin backfield?