SMU has never lost to Louisville. On Saturday, September 19, the Mustangs try to make it four straight in a building that's spent the whole offseason rebuilding specifically to end that streak.
Bush’s Picks
SMULOU
SMULOU
OverUnder
Best BetLouisville
Louisville gets the benefit of home field and a program with real staff continuity under Brohm, against an SMU team that lost both of its coordinators this offseason. It's a live spot for the Cardinals to finally flip a series they've never won, especially coming off a road upset of Miami last year. Still, this is a lean built on situation more than certainty — SMU brings back the better quarterback by a wide margin.
SMU
+Kevin Jennings returns after 3,363 yards, 26 TDs in 2025
+USA Today projects SMU as #2 team in ACC
+Has beaten Louisville 3 straight times, including a 38-6 rout
−Lost both offensive and defensive coordinators this offseason
−Only 3 returning starters on the offensive line
−Lost top 2 rushers and top 2 receivers from 2025
Louisville
+RB Isaac Brown is one of the best backs in the country
+Beat #2 Miami on the road last season under Brohm
+Massive portal overhaul, 30 additions aimed at rebuilding the roster
−QB Lincoln Kienholz has zero starts at Louisville
−Defense must replace 7 starters heading into the opener
−Has never beaten SMU in program history, 0-3 all-time
Kevin Jennings is running it back for one more season at SMU, and that alone makes the Mustangs the headliner of this early ACC slate. He threw for 3,363 yards and 26 touchdowns in 2025 and led the Mustangs to a Holiday Bowl win over Arizona, and USA Today has SMU projected as the second-best team in the conference behind Miami. Louisville counters with total turnover under center: Ohio State transfer Lincoln Kienholz is the presumptive QB1, but he's never made a start for the Cardinals.
Both lines are thin heading into fall camp. SMU returns just 3 starters up front after losing its top 2 rushers and top 2 receivers, while Louisville is replacing 7 defensive starters and broke in 30 new portal pieces this offseason. Jeff Brohm's staff spent the spring rebuilding around one certainty — running back Isaac Brown, one of the best skill players in the country — while SMU lost both of its coordinators and is now operating with co-OCs and co-DCs. Even with all that roster churn, oddsmakers still have Louisville favored at home.
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This is also personal. SMU beat Louisville 38-6 in Dallas last November and 34-27 the year before that, and the Cardinals have literally never beaten the Mustangs. Brohm's team enters fall camp with a signature win already on the resume — a road upset of #2 Miami last season — but that program has yet to solve SMU, and now it has to do it with a first-year starting quarterback and a defense that's mostly new faces.
SMU Mustangs
Sep 12?vs UC Davis—
Sep 7?@ Florida State—
Louisville Cardinals
Sep 11?vs Villanova—
Sep 6?@ Ole Miss—
Recent form.
The stylistic matchup is worth watching regardless of the number on the scoreboard. Louisville wants to lean on Brown and control the clock behind a line that got a full offseason of portal reinforcements, which plays right into a game plan built to keep Jennings and SMU's skill talent off the field. SMU, meanwhile, is banking on Jennings' experience and a reloaded receiving corps to make Louisville's inexperienced secondary pay early and often.
SMU Mustangs
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Fully healthy — no injuries on ESPN's report
Louisville Cardinals
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Fully healthy — no injuries on ESPN's report
Injury report — info via ESPN.
Jennings played through a lingering ankle issue for a chunk of 2025 and still put up nearly 3,400 passing yards, which says plenty about how much SMU's season runs through him. The bigger variable for Louisville isn't health — it's reps. Kienholz, Isaac Brown and a defense with 7 new starters are all working without a real body of work together, and September 19 is an awfully early proving ground against a team that's beaten them 3 straight times.
