One program is chasing a title with no idea who's throwing the ball. The other just talked its franchise quarterback out of the NFL to save its coach's job. Something's got to give in Tuscaloosa.
Bush’s Picks
SCALA
SCALA
OverUnder
Best BetAlabama
Alabama's the pick to win outright even with the quarterback race unresolved — DeBoer's roster is simply deeper across the two-deep, and the Tide have won 14 of the last 17 meetings in this series, including each of the last two. South Carolina's belief starts and ends with Sellers, and betting against that kind of talent gap on a home slate is a tough ask even with the buzz Beamer's group is generating.
South Carolina
+Sellers passed on NFL money to return
+Briles hire brings a proven uptempo scheme
+Stewart also retained as defensive anchor
−Coming off a 4-8, 1-7 SEC collapse
−Beamer reportedly coaching to save his job
−Alabama has won 14 of last 17 meetings
Alabama
+Year 3 under DeBoer after 11-4, CFP season
+Lopsided 14-3 series edge, plays at home
+Portal additions like Smothers and Rogers add speed
−Still no named starter between Mack, Russell
−Tabbed a 2026 portal-cycle "loser" by one analyst
−Lost multiple starters up front to the portal
Start with the strange part: Alabama still hasn't named a starting quarterback. Ty Simpson is gone, and DeBoer and offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb have been running a real competition between senior Austin Mack and sophomore Keelon Russell all offseason, with a decision reportedly not expected until deep into fall camp in August. That's an unusual spot for a program with this much roster talent and this much pressure on its head coach entering year 3.
South Carolina's story is the opposite kind of drama. LaNorris Sellers had NFL money on the table and came back to Columbia anyway, and it's not hard to see why Shane Beamer's job status is tied directly to that decision. The Gamecocks fired OC Mike Shula and brought in Kendal Briles to run the show, and by Beamer's own account this spring, Sellers looked comfortable picking up the new system fast. Dylan Stewart sticking around on the defensive line gives South Carolina an actual anchor to build around, which matters after a season that fell apart down the stretch.
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SC South Carolina
ALA Alabama
That collapse is the elephant in the room. South Carolina started 2-0 and briefly cracked the top 10 before losing 7 of its last 8 to finish 4-8, 1-7 in SEC play. Alabama, meanwhile, went 11-4 with a CFP appearance before getting run off the field 38-3 by Indiana in the Rose Bowl. Both rosters also took real hits in the portal — Alabama lost several front-line pieces up front and got tagged by one CBS Sports analyst as a portal-cycle "loser," while South Carolina is essentially betting its season on continuity at the two positions that matter most.
South Carolina Gamecocks
Sep 19?vs Mississippi State—
Sep 12?vs Towson—
Sep 5?vs Kent State—
Alabama Crimson Tide
Sep 19?vs Florida State—
Sep 12?@ Kentucky—
Sep 5?vs East Carolina—
Recent form.
History says this shouldn't be close. Alabama has won 14 of the last 17 meetings in this series, including both of the last two, one of them on a Hail Mary interception in Tuscaloosa. But history didn't have to deal with a Tide quarterback room that's still auditioning in August, or a Briles offense that's built specifically to make defenses guess. If Sellers has actually leveled up in the new scheme, South Carolina has the one variable capable of turning a laugher into a fight.
South Carolina Gamecocks
(0)
Fully healthy — no injuries on ESPN's report
Alabama Crimson Tide
(0)
Fully healthy — no injuries on ESPN's report
Injury report — info via ESPN.
None of that changes the baseline: Alabama's roster is deeper, more talented, and playing at home. But a program that hasn't settled its most important position by late July is not a program you back blindly, and a Gamecocks team that just talked its best player into staying is not a team you write off before the season even starts.
