TLDR: South Carolina has spent the last month beating good SEC teams, and the next stop is a cold night in Fayetteville against an Arkansas team that keeps losing close games and lopsided ones. The Gamecocks just need to avoid stumbling. The Hogs need a win that matters.
No. 23 South Carolina (5-3, 4-3 SEC) travels to face Arkansas (3-6, 1-5 SEC) after a 4-game win streak that ended with its defense holding Texas A&M to 9 points. Arkansas has dropped 4 of its last 5, though 2 of those were one-score games. Cam Settles's first career 100-yard game at Auburn gives the Hogs a running game to build around. It's likely to come down to whether that running game can keep South Carolina's defense from taking over on a cold night in Fayetteville.
The football part of this is straightforward. As of this weekend, No. 23 South Carolina has won 4 straight, holding Texas A&M to 9 points in a 17-9 homecoming win at Williams-Brice. That came after the Gamecocks scored 42 at Oklahoma, 38 at Florida and beat Tennessee by a field goal. Arkansas comes in 3-6 and 1-5 in the SEC. Its only win in the last 5 was 31-21 at Vanderbilt, and Saturday, November 14 at Reynolds Razorback Stadium is one of the few chances it has left to salvage something in conference play.
The best thing Arkansas took out of the trip to Auburn was its running game. Cam Settles ran for 100 yards on 16 carries, the first 100-yard game of his college career. The defense also had its best day of the season at getting into the backfield, with a season-high 8 tackles for loss, and Khmori House led the team with 9 stops, 2 of them for loss. None of it was enough, and the Hogs lost 26-23. Still, a run game that can stay on schedule is exactly what a struggling team needs against a defense that has been playing this well.
That defense was the story of the A&M game. Texas A&M was a 6.5-point underdog in that game with a total in the low 50s, and South Carolina's defense kept the game far below that number. The Gamecocks won without needing a big offensive day, and that's a different kind of win from the shootouts in Norman and Gainesville. It means South Carolina can win either way, which a team stuck in Arkansas's position rarely can.
The Arkansas form card is rough, and the scores matter as much as the losses. The Hogs lost 34-7 at Texas A&M and 34-10 at home to Missouri, but they also lost to Tennessee by 7 and to Auburn by 3. That makes 2 one-score losses in their last 4. They can stay in games. They haven't been able to finish them. South Carolina's lone loss in this stretch was a 1-point home loss to Kentucky, 35-34, which suggests even its bad days have been close.
The early forecast for Fayetteville is 37 degrees, clear skies and almost no wind. That's a week out, so it can change, but a calm, cold night favors the team that can run the ball and limit mistakes. Arkansas found a running back at Auburn. South Carolina has won 4 straight conference games playing that kind of football. Whichever team plays that way on Saturday will likely win.
