South Dakota's offense isn't padding stats against nobody, either. The Coyotes have scored 59, 38 and 41 points in their first 3 games, and they're converting red-zone trips at an eye-popping rate. Boise State's defense, meanwhile, ranks outside the top 130 nationally in both total yards and passing yards allowed, which is exactly the kind of unit a hot FCS spread offense wants to see across from it.
None of that means Boise State is in real danger of losing outright — depth and size still separate these programs when it matters most. But it does mean the machine that generates this line has to reconcile South Dakota's undefeated start and top-12 FCS ranking with the usual assumption that an FBS-FCS mismatch is a laugher from the opening snap.
Dylan Riley gives Boise State its own answer if this turns into a track meet — he's rushed for 256 yards on the season, including a 206-yard game against Memphis, and a run-heavy approach is the surest way for the Broncos to keep Modrzewski and that offense off the field. Charles Pierre Jr. has been just as productive for South Dakota, with 261 yards and 4 touchdowns on the ground, so whichever backfield controls tempo probably controls how competitive this one actually looks on the scoreboard.
Weather won't be a factor Saturday night — clear skies, mild temperatures and barely a breath of wind at Albertsons Stadium, so nothing slows either offense down artificially. First-year South Dakota coach Matt Vitzthum has his team playing loose and confident after 3 straight blowout wins; the question this week is whether that carries over against a roster with an entirely different level of talent up front.