These 2 have common opponents, and the results point in different directions. South Florida beat UAB 30-10 at home. East Carolina lost 30-17 at UAB. Temple goes the other way: it won 17-13 in Tampa, while East Carolina held the Owls to 9. So neither team clearly has the edge on paper.
South Florida's defense has carried its season. Over the last 5 games the Bulls have held opponents to 6, 2 and 10 points, and the one real breakdown was a 31-24 loss at UTSA. The offense is less steady. It scored 13 at home in the Temple loss and 14 at Bowling Green, though it has scored 29 and 30 in the last 2 games. If the Bulls fall behind early in a road game, there's no proof yet that the offense can bring them back.
East Carolina has been very different home and away. In Greenville the Pirates beat North Carolina Central 42-9, Rice 28-12 and Temple 17-9. On the road they lost at UAB and then at Memphis, 41-34. That makes Dowdy-Ficklen the biggest thing in East Carolina's favor. The Pirates are 2-2 in the American, same as South Florida, and at 4-4 they need wins to reach a bowl. South Florida is already there.
The forecast says it should be about 63 degrees and partly cloudy with light wind, so weather shouldn't decide anything. The game comes down to 1 question: can Engleman and the East Carolina run game stay on schedule against a defense that keeps forcing turnovers? If the Pirates end up in third-and-long, Hicks and the South Florida front are built for exactly that.
