Stanford and Cal have been swinging at each other since 1892, but the 129th Big Game arrives with a twist — for the first time since 1977, both sidelines will be run by first-year head coaches.
Bush’s Picks
STANCAL
STANCAL
OverUnder
Best BetCalifornia
Cal's the lean to win outright, mostly on quarterback continuity — Sagapolutele's already thrown for over 3,400 yards as a first-year starter, while Stanford is banking on a grad transfer running a brand-new scheme. Playing in front of a hostile Berkeley crowd for the Axe only tilts things further toward the Bears.
Stanford
+Reclaimed the Axe in 2025 with a 31-10 win
+Andrew Luck's GM regime adds NFL-level structure
+Owns the all-time series lead at 66-51-11
−Hasn't won more than 4 games since 2018
−First-year coach Pritchard has no prior HC job
−Breaking in new OC and DC at the same time
California
+Sagapolutele threw for 3,454 yards, 18 TD as a first-year starter
+Coming off a 7-win 2025 season
+Loaded the receiver room via the transfer portal
−Also breaking in first-year coach Tosh Lupoi
−Michael Hutchings rebuilding the defense from scratch
−New system installs can be rocky out of the gate
Cal's Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele heads into his sophomore season as the engine of new coach Tosh Lupoi's offense after throwing for 3,454 yards and 18 touchdowns as a first-year starter in 2025. Stanford counters with graduate transfer Davis Warren under center, tasked with running new coach Tavita Pritchard and OC Terry Heffernan's system as the Cardinal try to build on last year's Axe-reclaiming win. Both programs are working with fresh staffs and new quarterbacking situations, which makes this the biggest swing factor heading into the season.
Cal spent the offseason restocking through the transfer portal, adding receiver depth around Sagapolutele while new coordinator Michael Hutchings rebuilds a defense from scratch. Stanford's rebuild carries more institutional weight than usual with Andrew Luck running the program as general manager, but roster continuity is still the open question for a team that hasn't topped 4 wins in a season since 2018. No number's been hung on this one yet, which is normal this far out from kickoff.
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STAN Stanford
CAL California
The Axe itself will be on the line again. Stanford took it back in 2025 with a 31-10 win in Palo Alto, snapping a 4-year Cal hold on the trophy, and the Cardinal still own the all-time series at 66-51-11. Whoever wins in Berkeley keeps the hardware for another year, regardless of where either team lands in the standings.
Stanford Cardinal
Nov 13?@ Virginia Tech—
Oct 30?@ Louisville—
Oct 23?vs NC State—
Oct 17?vs Elon—
Oct 10?@ Notre Dame—
Oct 2?@ Wake Forest—
Sep 26?vs Georgia Tech—
Sep 19?@ Duke—
Sep 4?vs Miami—
Aug 29?vs Hawai'i—
California Golden Bears
Nov 13?@ Virginia—
Oct 30?@ NC State—
Oct 16?vs Wake Forest—
Oct 9?vs Virginia Tech—
Oct 3?@ UNLV—
Sep 25?vs Clemson—
Sep 19?vs Wagner—
Sep 12?@ Syracuse—
Sep 5?vs UCLA—
Recent form.
Cal hosting at Memorial Stadium adds another layer to this one — Lupoi is a former Golden Bears defensive lineman making his return to Berkeley as the man in charge, and a rowdy Big Game crowd is exactly the kind of environment that either galvanizes a first-year staff or exposes one still finding its footing.
Pritchard, meanwhile, is selling patience on the Farm while leaning on the NFL pedigree he and Luck bring to the building. Neither program has much of a track record yet under its new regime, which is what makes this season-ending trip to Berkeley worth circling now instead of waiting for game week.
